Buckle your seat belts and get ready for me to bang out my AFC preview in one post and no less than 3,000 words. Clear your schedule before reading this.
AFC East
1) New England Patriots (13-3)
This was probably one of the easiest choices I’ve ever had to make in my writing career. Which team to pick to win the AFC East. I don’t know if I can make a legitimate case for anybody in this division other than the Patriots when Tom Brady is healthy. And before you accuse me of melting and fawning in the presence of Tom Brady like Turtle in Entourage, just know that I don’t have a man-crush on him, I just WATCH FOOTBALL. I was there for the 16-0 season, I lived it. (I also lived Super Bowl XLII, but that’s okay (That was my one obligatory SBXLII reference for this column, sorry for the double parentheses.)) The Patriots are far and away the best team in this division. Even Brian Hoyer managed to shred the Giants second and third string defenses last night. The Chiefs will probably sign him to a $600 million dollar contract next offseason.
2) Buffalo Bills (10-6)
I still believe that this team is better than most people take them to be. If you can remember this far back, they did start last season with a 5-1 record, but 3 of those wins were against Seattle, Oakland and St. Louis. They then proceeded to lose 8 of their last 10 games and finish a stealthy 0-6 against division opponents. So the 5-1 start may have been the product of smoke and mirrors and slight of hand, but the addition of Terrell Owens isn’t going to hurt. Hate T.O. all you want, but he never fails to produce, and this season in Buffalo, he’ll do something else very important: he’ll draw double coverage from most teams leaving the dangerous Josh Reed and Lee Evans more room to make big plays. If Marshawn Lynch stays healthy and doesn’t disappear off the face of the earth like he did last season and if Trent Edwards is at least semi-competent, the Bills can finish second. That’s about it though.
3) New York Jets (8-8)
I’m not sold on Mark Sanchez and I probably never will be sold on Mark Sanchez unless he is not Mark Sanchez anymore or if the Jets win their first 9 or 10 games this season. Otherwise, I’ll pass. It probably has a lot to do with his GQ spread before even playing a single down in the NFL and the fact that he went pro after one full season at USC and magically became a Top-10 pick. Something about that just rubs me the wrong way. Say what you will, but I’m a skeptic. I’m a skeptic because I don’t believe in Mark Sanchez and I’m a skeptic because Mark Sanchez has nobody to throw to. As a Giants fan, I know I shouldn’t be throwing stones and all, but Jerricho Cotchery is Jerricho Cotchery. They are what we thought they were.
4) Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Let’s assume that just about every team in the league is now aware of the Wildcat offense by now. It’s a safe assumption. Let’s assume that the Dolphins can no longer pull the wool over your eyes and run this crazy offensive scheme where Ronnie Brown is taking direct snaps and Chad Pennington is catching passes, because we know it’s coming now. Let’s assume that the Dolphins will no longer be capable of scoring 48 points against the Patriots this season. Now let’s also assume that Chad Pennington starts playing like Chad Pennington and not like a real quarterback, which is what he looked like for most of last season. Then what do we have left? We have the Miami Dolphins we all know and love; overwhelmingly mediocre.
AFC North
1) Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
The Ravens were one of the teams that impressed me the most in last year’s playoffs. Ultimately, the Ravens demise in the AFC Championship against Pittsburgh was rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, who was so impressive during the regular season. But it was what was expected of a young quarterback, playing in probably the biggest game of his life to that point. In his second season now, I expect Flacco to make even bigger strides in improving his game management and limiting his mistakes. He has a solid arm and great efficiency and we already know that Baltimore can run the football. Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain and Ray Rice will split carries again this year and look for Rice to be more productive as a pass-catching back as well. Do I even have to even mention the defense? We all know that the Ravens D is the cream of the crop, second only to the next team….Pittsburgh. So why do I have B-More winning the division? Because I like to be different, and because they impressed me in the playoffs last seaso—- I don’t want to repeat myself, you get it.
2) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
I know, they’re the defending champions, and blahblahblah. The post-Super Bowl slump is a real thing though, it does exist. Just ask the Giants. Sure, they finished 12-4 last year, but did you see that Philadelphia game? Exactly. Plus, two Super Bowl rings or not, I still feel the same way about Ben Roethlisberger as I did when he was a rookie: meh. Basically what I’m saying is that their defense should still win them about 5 or 6 games this season and Ben will do just enough to not lose in another 6.
3) Cincinnati Bengals (7-9)
Call me a victim of solid editing by HBO, but the 2009 Cincinnati Bengals are starting to grow on me. I’m a big fan of the Hard Knocks series and this season definitely is not lacking in the entertainment category. Unfortunately, entertainment doesn’t win you football games in the NFL. Just ask Chad Ochocinco. Sure, “Kiss the Baby” might catch on as the next ridiculous catch-phrase in sports, but Esteban needs to catch a few more touchdown passes than he did last year (4) for the Bengals to be relevant. It helps that Carson Palmer is back from last season’s injury and having him under center instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick is definitely good for at least 3 or 4 more wins. When he’s at 100%, there’s not denying that he’s one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, so Cincinnati will improve with him back on the field.
4) Cleveland Browns (4-12)
There are a lot of funny quarterback battles this season. Between Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich in Tampa Bay (Leftwich won and McCown was just traded to Jacksonville), Alex Smith and Shaun Hill in San Francisco and Mark Sanchez and Kellen Clemens in New York, nothing tops the one going on in Cleveland right now. Derek Anderson vs. Brady Quinn. Nothing says “Rebuilding Year” like having Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn fighting over the quarterback position. Plus, Braylon Edwards would probably drop his own child if it was thrown at him.
AFC South
1) Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
Don’t write off the Colts this season, even with Tony Dungy leaving and Peyton Manning another year older, they’re still the same Indianapolis Colts and believe it or not, he’s still the same Peyton Manning. They didn’t impress a lot of people in the playoffs last year, getting ousted by San Diego in the first round, but the Chargers were one of the hottest teams in the league at that point and they have always had Peyton’s number. He has never had much luck against the 3-4 defense. Manning seems to be getting comfortable with the new system installed by new head coach Jim Caldwell and the Colts should enjoy themselves another solid season.
2) Tennessee Titans (10-6)
The Titans were one of the big surprises of 2008 and coasted into the playoffs with the best record in the AFC before being shut down in the Divisional Playoffs by Baltimore. What happened was that the Ravens played a very similar brand of football as Tennessee, stingy defense, solid running game, real smash-mouth football — only they played it better. The fact of the matter is that Kerry Collins is good for only 1 of those seasons like he had last year (trust me, as a Giants fan, I would know this) and so don’t expect too much from him this year. Expect them to do much of the same as what won them 13 games last year, only this time they won’t be sneaking up on anybody.
3) Houston Texans (9-7)
This team is slowly getting better and better each season, and people are noticing. Not enough people yet, but the word is getting around. What the Texans really need this season is for Matt Schaub to stay healthy for 16 games. Schaub has a hell of an arm and a solid bunch of receivers to throw to. Andre Johnson put up Pro Bowl numbers last season, most of them coming with Sage Rosenfels throwing to him, and Kevin Walter is one of those quiet, under-the-radar guys that put up 10 TD’s last season without anyone really noticing. Add talented TE Owen Daniels to the mix and Steve Slaton, one of last year’s breakout rookies and there is a great, young team to watch in Houston. Oh, and their defense is pretty good too.
4) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
I’ll be honest, I don’t know that much about the 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars. I just know that they were 5-11 last season and that I’ve heard very little about them since training camp started. So I can only assume that they’re pretty much the same guys that were 5-11 last season. Am I right? Correct me if I’m not. Maurice Jones-Drew will put up some great fantasy numbers, but I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in David Garrard. Luckily the Jags have another option now at quarterback just in case things get shaky…they just acquired Luke McCown in a trade from Tampa Bay. At least football fans in North Florida still have the Seminoles to get excited about. Wait, what was that? They lost their season-opener to Miami last night? Sorry I mentioned it then.
AFC West
1) San Diego Chargers (14-2)
Luckily, the last division of this preview is also one of the least exciting divisions in football right now. The Chargers went into the playoffs last season as possibly the hottest team in football, but just couldn’t out-muscle the Steelers. However, don’t forget that they won this division at 8-8. It was equal parts of San Diego winning the division and equal parts of Denver giving the division away to the lowest bidder, and the Chargers are certainly not without flaw. In fact they are far from perfect. They are talented though and have a gunslinger for a quarterback, plus they get to play 6 games against the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders, which should be enough to win the division on its own. Basically, I have to get behind an AFC team and I choose to be unoriginal and go with the Bolts. Don’t expect me to pick them in the playoffs though, because the man standing on the sidelines with the clipboard is still Norv Turner.
2) Denver Broncos (7-9)
They tried their absolute hardest to lose this division last season, and that was when they still had Jay Cutler. Also before Brandon Marshall completely lost his mind. I’m getting angry while I write this. I actually used to respect the Broncos but I don’t know — I can’t do this anymore, forget it.
3) Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)
The winners of the Matt Cassel Sweepstakes! They’ll have a fun year convincing themselves that they didn’t overpay for someone else’s back-up. I have faith that Cassel will be good for a few extra wins. Plus, Cassel-to-Bowe seems like an exciting possibility. Hey Kansas City, let’s keep Larry Johnson out of bars this season!
4) Oakland Raiders (3-13)
Games won in the last six seasons: 24. Games lost in the last six seasons: 72. Last season with more than 5 wins: 2002. Is Al Davis still alive? Probably. All bad signs for the 2009 Raiders. What’s even worse is that Al Davis is convincing himself on his deathbed, that JaMarcus Russell is the future of Oakland Raiders football. What’s ironic is that the definition of a black hole (the Raiders’ name for their rabid section of armor-clad, face-painted fans), is a dying star that has collapsed on itself. Much like the Oakland Raiders.
