Making Sense of Week 10

16 11 2009

With the Giants not playing yesterday, I had a better chance to really absorb the other games going on around the league and take a closer look into some of the more interesting stories that unfolded in Week 10 of this NFL season. There were more than a few interesting subplots to take away from yesterday’s action. From near-upsets to head-scratching coaching decisions, Week 10 was like one long of episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm. Moments of laughter, moments of confusion and moments that make you wonder, “Did he really just do that?” But above all those things, yesterday just proved to me, once again, that I really do not have a clue how to pick NFL games.

  • Since I’m likely to finish below .500 in my picks for the second straight week, I’d like to at least take a few sentences to acknowledge that I am capable of getting something right. In my Week 10 picks column, I wrote that Vince Young had revitalized the Titans in a way that they desperately needed. He provides an extra intangible spark that Kerry Collins didn’t possess and with him on the field it seems that the team as a whole is playing with a lot more confidence now. That has never been more apparent than yesterday’s 41-17 thrashing of the Buffalo Bills. Of course I’m aware that they beat the Bills and not the Colts, but Tennessee has now won three in a row with Young under center.  I’m aware that anyone with even a portion of a normally-functioning brain could tell that replacing Collins as the starter would spark the Titans, but I still feel proud to be able to salvage some sliver of wisdom from my defeated and drained psyche.
  • I’m aware that even the best teams in the league have their off days, but the Saints really escaped with one yesterday. And by escaped, I mean that they did everything but have Michael Scofield tattoo prison blueprints to his body and get arrested so he could help them escape. The Saints were sloppy yesterday, but the fact that they somehow managed to stick with their gameplan and survive even on their worst of days to stay undefeated, makes them that much better. And if that doesn’t make a lot of sense to you now, just wait until the playoffs and you’ll see what I mean. A 9-0 team that loses a sloppy, meaningless Week 10 game to the Rams loses a little bit of their swagger, even if its not immediately noticeable. On the other hand, a 9-0 team that barely escapes the upset and ekes out a win over the Rams in a meaningless Week 10 game gains something from that win. Believe it or not.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals. I’ve been fawning over them all season like I’m a teenage girl from 1994 and the Bengals are Zach Morris from Saved by the Bell. Of course I haven’t been able to pay as much attention to them as I’d like because I took up a seat on the Broncos bandwagon after Week 1 and I have been riding shotgun there ever since. But yesterday, as much as I talked up their defense all week and even though I took them in my picks column, there was something in the back of my mind that told me that they couldn’t beat the Steelers on the road in the most important game of the season thus far in the AFC North. And then they did. 18-12. They scored the only touchdown of the entire game on Bernard Scott’s 96-yard kickoff return in the first quarter and 4 Shayne Graham field goals later, the Bengals are 7-2 and all alone in first place in the AFC North. With a 5-0 record within the division, they are in the driver’s seat right now, having swept both the Ravens and the defending Super Bowl champs and one more meeting with the hapless Browns is the only thing that stand between Cincy and a 6-0 record in the AFC North and possibly a first-round bye in the playoffs. Needless to say, I vacated the Broncos bandwagon after yesterday’s disaster in Washington so quickly that I think I left a vapor trail and now I’m on the waiting list for the Cincinnati bandwagon. I know I should have come to them sooner.
  • Speaking of the Broncos, they are slumping, and they are slumping big time. And speaking of slumping, there’s another team that continued its struggles yesterday that starts with “Atlanta” and ends with “Falcons”. While the Broncos were busy dropping their third straight game to a Redskins team that can’t get out of its own way, the Falcons went ahead and lost for the third time in four games. Atlanta, now 5-4 after a 4-1 start to the season, apparently has a strong case of the homesick blues as all four of their losses have come away from the Georgia Dome. The road woes will be in play once again next week as the Falcons travel to Giants Stadium to take on a Giants team that is also struggling. In addition, Atlanta might be without star running back Michael Turner, who rolled his ankle yesterday in the second quarter, after piling up 111 yards on only 9 carries. While this could be disastrous for my already sinking fantasy team, it’s a good thing for Giants fans, which I am. The Broncos aren’t without injury issues of their own, as Kyle Orton went down with an ankle injury yesterday as well. Chris Simms started the second half for Denver, which might seem like a bad thing, until you realize that the difference between Kyle Orton and Chris Simms is like the difference between Sweet & Low and Equal. They’re both bad for you, but one is a little less worse. Fortunately for both teams, the Falcons still have two games to play against the Bucs and the Broncos play in the same division as the Raiders and Chiefs. Hope remains.
  • The Dallas Cowboys are not really making it hard for me to question their legitimacy. They put on a strong performance one week and then have a game like they did against the Kansas City Chiefs the week after. Last week, they seemed to be in top form; and then yesterday they get shutout by Green Bay for 58 minutes. I’m not saying the Packers are bad, because they are far from it, but this is a Packers defense that got torched for 38 points by Tampa Bay last week and are apparently having identity issues themselves. Romo looked his usual, scared self, and most importantly, Dallas just could not get the run game going with Marion Barber being held to only 26 yards on 5 carries. Romo was forced to throw the ball 39 times, and everybody knows that when Tony Romo is throwing the ball 39 times, things are not going well. Had I stayed home to watch football yesterday, I would have been stuck watching the Cowboys-Packers with nothing else to toggle back-and-forth between. However, I decided to go to the local sports pub for the 4:00 games and possibly saved myself from sticking bamboo up my fingernails to ease the torture of a 3-0 game in the 4th quarter combined with the drone of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman.
  • What will possibly end up being the most-talked-about story of yesterday and the most heavily questioned coaching decision in recent memory happened during last night’s much anticipated, annual Patriots-Colts battle. With the Pats up 34-28 and just over 2 minutes to play, Bill Belichick opted to go for it on a 4th and 2 with the ball on the Pats’ own 28-yard line. As Tom Brady came back on the field and the team lined up to go for it, all I remember is that I kept repeating, “No they’re not, they can’t be” as I watched in horror. Sure enough, they did not convert and at the two-minute warning, with three full timeouts left, Peyton Manning had but a mere 28 yards to take his team for the game-winning touchdown. Instead of punting it away and leaving Manning with maybe 60 or 70 yards to march in 2 minutes, Belichick made Peyton’s job at least 50% easier for him. In case Bill wasn’t aware of this, Peyton Manning is perhaps one of the few players in the NFL that you don’t want to ever make things easier for. It’s already easy for him. Is it highly possibly that Manning would take the Colts down the field for the score anyway, even if New England punted? Yes, very possible. BUT WHY MAKE HIS JOB EASIER? It took Indy four plays until Manning found Reggie Wayne in the endzone. 35-34, game over, Colts stay undefeated. Not only did the Patriots blow a 34-21 lead with 4 minutes to play and possibly a chance to recapture the throne of power in the AFC, but their supposedly genius coach suffered one of the most epic brain farts of all time. I swear that I’ve made decisions with a BAC of 2.25 that were better than that decision to go for it on fourth down.
  • And before I sign off for the rest of the week and mentally prepare myself for the Giants-Falcons game on Sunday, it would not be right if I didn’t get in at least one dig at the New York Jets. Not only has Gang Green dropped 5 of their last 6 games after their rather arrogant 3-0 start, but they’ve lost to the Dolphins twice, the Bills and now the Jacksonville Jaguars, with 3 of those losses coming on their home turf. Forget for the second that somehow the Jaguars are 5-4, losing to Jacksonville, Miami and Buffalo at home is not going to make a lot of people believers. Keep up the good work, and you might be able to salvage a 6-10 record out of this season.




NFL Week 10 Picks: Going to the Movies

13 11 2009

I didn’t get time to really sit down with this week’s picks because of tonight’s impromptu Thursday night game (that I’ve been aware of for at least 2 weeks) between the Bears and 49ers. It’s probably better off that I am making these picks on the fly, considering I was 5-8 last week and my fantasy football team is sinking like the Lusitania. In other words, I don’t know anything about football right now. So, to waste as little of your time as possible, let’s do some quick picks, with my analysis for each pick whittled down to a movie title. The NFL picks have gone Hollywood!

Per the usual, all home teams in caps…

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Chicago

Zombieland. Dedicated to Jay Cutler and Alex Smith. I can’t believe how many people piled on the Bears bandwagon before this season. Like Jay Cutler could ever lead a team to the Super Bowl. That would be like thinking Rex Grossman could lead a team to the Super Bowl. We all know that would never happen….wait….

*Note: By the way, I picked this game before last night, I just didn’t have time to get the column up before it was over. On a related note, I’m glad I don’t have the NFL Network after finding out what an awful game that was. 10-6, Niners. Really.

NY JETS (-7) over Jacksonville

The Green Mile. Dedicated to Jets head coach Rex Ryan. Congratulations on coaching a 4-4 team with possibly the biggest collective ego in the history of 4-4 teams. It seems like you’re miles away from that 3-0 record and all the Super Bowl talk that came with it. In Week 4.

Denver (-3.5) over WASHINGTON

The Hangover. Dedicated to the Washington Redskins. I’d rather have a massive hangover than watch a Redskins game. Also, I know the Broncos are on a slide and everything, but we’re content to make them only 3.5 point favorites over the Redskins? Really? The Washington Redskins?

Cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH

Big Fish. Dedicated to the 2009 Cincinnati Bengals. If the Bengals want to convince everyone that they’re truly the contenders that Ochocinco says they are, then they have to keep taking down the Big Fish of the AFC North. They beat the Steelers in their first meeting back in Week 3 and have already swept the Ravens. With a 4-0 record within their division, a win on Sunday over Pittsburgh would go a long way in helping Cincy secure a division title. If you would have told me at this time last year that the 2009 Bengals would be in position to take over first place in the division in Week 10 I would have punched you right in the face.

TENNESSEE (-7) over Buffalo

Up. Dedicated to Vince Young’s stock. It could be because of the fact that a scarecrow could probably play better quarterback than Kerry Collins, or it could be because of one of my favorite things to say in all caps: VINCE YOUNG WINS FOOTBALL GAMES. Heck, who’s to say that they won’t roll off 10 straight wins and make the playoffs? Actually, I say they won’t, but it doesn’t matter. It can only get better from here for the Titans and Vince Young.

MINNESOTA (-17) over Detroit

Gran Torino. Dedicated to Brett Favre because he reminds me of Clint Eastwood’s character in Gran Torino: as old as dirt but still kicking ass. For now.

New Orleans (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS

V for Vendetta. Dedicated to Drew Brees and the Saints. Why? Because every week it seems like they have a personal vendetta against the league. For years everyone has talked up their offense but said that they couldn’t get the job done on defense and that’s what would prevent them from being a true championship contender. Now? Their defense is almost as strong as their offense and they are ripping through this league with a vengeance. Hell hath no fury like a Drew Brees scorned. Seriously, I’m afraid of the Saints right now.

Atlanta (-1.5) over CAROLINA

Saving Private Ryan. Dedicated to Matt Ryan. If anyone needs saving, it’s this guy. Maybe I wouldn’t notice his recent decline (more like freefall) if he wasn’t the starting quarterback on my fantasy team, but he is, so I’m noticing. It’s like he got involved with a shady mob guy who told him he would break his kneecaps if his QB rating went over 80 for the rest of the season. This is why I am now involved with my ex-QB Donovan McNabb once again. If there’s one thing I have learned from fantasy football, it’s this: try as hard as possible to stay away from your exes. Bad news.

Tampa Bay (+10) over MIAMI

The Third Man. Dedicated to Bucs QB Josh Freeman. They tried Byron Leftwich and that didn’t work. Then they tried Josh Johnson for a few seconds. That didn’t work either. Now it’s Josh Freeman’s turn. The rookie out of Kansas State looked impressive last week in the Bucs thrashing of Green Bay, and many scouts considered him the best overall athlete in the 2009 draft. Will Josh Freeman be the answer for Tampa Bay? I have no clue. And neither does Vegas, which is why they’re 10 point underdogs to the Dolphins.

OAKLAND (-2) over Kansas City

Raiders of the Lost Ark. Dedicated to…the Raiders. Not only is the ark lost, but we can count a good chunk of their fan base and pretty much most of their dignity as a franchise gone too. Can we move them back to Los Angeles after this season and forget this ever happened?

ARIZONA (-8.5) over Seattle

No Country for Old Men. Dedicated to Kurt Warner and Matt Hasselbeck. The glory days are quickly passing by for these two QB’s and I think Kurt had his last legitimate shot at another title last season. I don’t think the Cardinals have what it takes to make it back again and I don’t think the Seahawks would have a shot if they consolidated the NFC West down to two teams.

Philadelphia (+1) over SAN DIEGO

Destroying Fantasy Teams in My Sleep. Dedicated to LaDainian Tomlinson. I know that’s not a real movie, but LDT should be arrested for what he has done to fantasy owners who have taken the risk of drafting him for the last two years now. It’s obscene. He’s like the Ted Bundy of fantasy players, killing teams left and right.

Dallas (-3) over GREEN BAY

The Shining. Dedicated to the Green Bay Packers defense because I’m going to reenact that scene with Jack Nicholson and the axe in the bathroom door if they decide to allow another 38 points this week.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3) over New England

Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. Dedicated to Tom Brady because he is the Lord of the Rings in the NFL right now and until someone takes the throne from him, he is still the king. Although this is the perfect opportunity for Peyton Manning and the Colts to snatch the throne out from under Brady and the Pats. Peyton, in a night game at home, is almost unbeatable as of late. This will be the night when we find out whether the Patriots are back or whether the Colts have arrived. Either way, this game needs a bonus movie: There Will Be Blood.

Baltimore (-11) over CLEVELAND

This is Really the Monday Night Game? Dedicated to the people at ESPN who scheduled this snoozefest. The Brady Quinn-Derek Anderson debacle is on it’s 25th cycle right now with Quinn set to make the start on Monday night. They’ve flip-flopped QB’s so many times that I’m starting to get nauseous.

Last Week: 5-8

Season Total: 74-55





MEGA, SUPERSIZED, COLOSSAL 2009 NFL Season Preview, Parts III and IV (Double Issue!)

8 09 2009

Buckle your seat belts and get ready for me to bang out my AFC preview in one post and no less than 3,000 words. Clear your schedule before reading this.

AFC East

1) New England Patriots (13-3)

This was probably one of the easiest choices I’ve ever had to make in my writing career. Which team to pick to win the AFC East. I don’t know if I can make a legitimate case for anybody in this division other than the Patriots when Tom Brady is healthy. And before you accuse me of melting and fawning in the presence of Tom Brady like Turtle in Entourage, just know that I don’t have a man-crush on him, I just WATCH FOOTBALL. I was there for the 16-0 season, I lived it. (I also lived Super Bowl XLII, but that’s okay (That was my one obligatory SBXLII reference for this column, sorry for the double parentheses.)) The Patriots are far and away the best team in this division. Even Brian Hoyer managed to shred the Giants second and third string defenses last night. The Chiefs will probably sign him to a $600 million dollar contract next offseason.

2) Buffalo Bills (10-6)

I still believe that this team is better than most people take them to be. If you can remember this far back, they did start last season with a 5-1 record, but 3 of those wins were against Seattle, Oakland and St. Louis. They then proceeded to lose 8 of their last 10 games and finish a stealthy 0-6 against division opponents. So the 5-1 start may have been the product of smoke and mirrors and slight of hand, but the addition of Terrell Owens isn’t going to hurt. Hate T.O. all you want, but he never fails to produce, and this season in Buffalo, he’ll do something else very important: he’ll draw double coverage from most teams leaving the dangerous Josh Reed and Lee Evans more room to make big plays. If Marshawn Lynch stays healthy and doesn’t disappear off the face of the earth like he did last season and if Trent Edwards is at least semi-competent, the Bills can finish second. That’s about it though.

3) New York Jets (8-8)

I’m not sold on Mark Sanchez and I probably never will be sold on Mark Sanchez unless he is not Mark Sanchez anymore or if the Jets win their first 9 or 10 games this season. Otherwise, I’ll pass. It probably has a lot to do with his GQ spread before even playing a single down in the NFL and the fact that he went pro after one full season at USC and magically became a Top-10 pick. Something about that just rubs me the wrong way. Say what you will, but I’m a skeptic. I’m a skeptic because I don’t believe in Mark Sanchez and I’m a skeptic because Mark Sanchez has nobody to throw to. As a Giants fan, I know I shouldn’t be throwing stones and all, but Jerricho Cotchery is Jerricho Cotchery. They are what we thought they were.

4) Miami Dolphins (8-8)

Let’s assume that just about every team in the league is now aware of the Wildcat offense by now. It’s a safe assumption. Let’s assume that the Dolphins can no longer pull the wool over your eyes and run this crazy offensive scheme where Ronnie Brown is taking direct snaps and Chad Pennington is catching passes, because we know it’s coming now. Let’s assume that the Dolphins will no longer be capable of scoring 48 points against the Patriots this season. Now let’s also assume that Chad Pennington starts playing like Chad Pennington and not like a real quarterback, which is what he looked like for most of last season. Then what do we have left? We have the Miami Dolphins we all know and love; overwhelmingly mediocre.

AFC North

1) Baltimore Ravens (13-3)

The Ravens were one of the teams that impressed me the most in last year’s playoffs. Ultimately, the Ravens demise in the AFC Championship against Pittsburgh was rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, who was so impressive during the regular season. But it was what was expected of a young quarterback, playing in probably the biggest game of his life to that point. In his second season now, I expect Flacco to make even bigger strides in improving his game management and limiting his mistakes. He has a solid arm and great efficiency and we already know that Baltimore can run the football. Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain and Ray Rice will split carries again this year and look for Rice to be more productive as a pass-catching back as well. Do I even have to even mention the defense? We all know that the Ravens D is the cream of the crop, second only to the next team….Pittsburgh. So why do I have B-More winning the division? Because I like to be different, and because they impressed me in the playoffs last seaso—- I don’t want to repeat myself, you get it.

2) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

I know, they’re the defending champions, and blahblahblah. The post-Super Bowl slump is a real thing though, it does exist. Just ask the Giants. Sure, they finished 12-4 last year, but did you see that Philadelphia game?  Exactly. Plus, two Super Bowl rings or not, I still feel the same way about Ben Roethlisberger as I did when he was a rookie: meh. Basically what I’m saying is that their defense should still win them about 5 or 6 games this season and Ben will do just enough to not lose in another 6.

3) Cincinnati Bengals (7-9)

Call me a victim of solid editing by HBO, but the 2009 Cincinnati Bengals are starting to grow on me. I’m a big fan of the Hard Knocks series and this season definitely is not lacking in the entertainment category. Unfortunately, entertainment doesn’t win you football games in the NFL. Just ask Chad Ochocinco. Sure, “Kiss the Baby” might catch on as the next ridiculous catch-phrase in sports, but Esteban needs to catch a few more touchdown passes than he did last year (4) for the Bengals to be relevant. It helps that Carson Palmer is back from last season’s injury and having him under center instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick is definitely good for at least 3 or 4 more wins. When he’s at 100%, there’s not denying that he’s one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, so Cincinnati will improve with him back on the field.

4) Cleveland Browns (4-12)

There are a lot of funny quarterback battles this season. Between Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich in Tampa Bay (Leftwich won and McCown was just traded to Jacksonville), Alex Smith and Shaun Hill in San Francisco and Mark Sanchez and Kellen Clemens in New York, nothing tops the one going on in Cleveland right now. Derek Anderson vs. Brady Quinn. Nothing says “Rebuilding Year” like having Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn fighting over the quarterback position. Plus, Braylon Edwards would probably drop his own child if it was thrown at him.

AFC South

1) Indianapolis Colts (12-4)

Don’t write off the Colts this season, even with Tony Dungy leaving and Peyton Manning another year older, they’re still the same Indianapolis Colts and believe it or not, he’s still the same Peyton Manning. They didn’t impress a lot of people in the playoffs last year, getting ousted by San Diego in the first round, but the Chargers were one of the hottest teams in the league at that point and they have always had Peyton’s number. He has never had much luck against the 3-4 defense. Manning seems to be getting comfortable with the new system installed by new head coach Jim Caldwell and the Colts should enjoy themselves another solid season.

2) Tennessee Titans (10-6)

The Titans were one of the big surprises of 2008 and coasted into the playoffs with the best record in the AFC before being shut down in the Divisional Playoffs by Baltimore. What happened was that the Ravens played a very similar brand of football as Tennessee, stingy defense, solid running game, real smash-mouth football — only they played it better.  The fact of the matter is that Kerry Collins is good for only 1 of those seasons like he had last year (trust me, as a Giants fan, I would know this) and so don’t expect too much from him this year. Expect them to do much of the same as what won them 13 games last year, only this time they won’t be sneaking up on anybody.

3) Houston Texans (9-7)

This team is slowly getting better and better each season, and people are noticing. Not enough people yet, but the word is getting around. What the Texans really need this season is for Matt Schaub to stay healthy for 16 games. Schaub has a hell of an arm and a solid bunch of receivers to throw to. Andre Johnson put up Pro Bowl numbers last season, most of them coming with Sage Rosenfels throwing to him, and Kevin Walter is one of those quiet, under-the-radar guys that put up 10 TD’s last season without anyone really noticing. Add talented TE Owen Daniels to the mix and Steve Slaton, one of last year’s breakout rookies and there is a great, young team to watch in Houston. Oh, and their defense is pretty good too.

4) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

I’ll be honest, I don’t know that much about the 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars. I just know that they were 5-11 last season and that I’ve heard very little about them since training camp started. So I can only assume that they’re pretty much the same guys that were 5-11 last season. Am I right? Correct me if I’m not. Maurice Jones-Drew will put up some great fantasy numbers, but I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in David Garrard. Luckily the Jags have another option now at quarterback just in case things get shaky…they just acquired Luke McCown in a trade from Tampa Bay. At least football fans in North Florida still have the Seminoles to get excited about. Wait, what was that? They lost their season-opener to Miami last night? Sorry I mentioned it then.

AFC West

1) San Diego Chargers (14-2)

Luckily, the last division of this preview is also one of the least exciting divisions in football right now. The Chargers went into the playoffs last season as possibly the hottest team in football, but just couldn’t out-muscle the Steelers. However, don’t forget that they won this division at 8-8. It was equal parts of San Diego winning the division and equal parts of Denver giving the division away to the lowest bidder, and the Chargers are certainly not without flaw. In fact they are far from perfect. They are talented though and have a gunslinger for a quarterback, plus they get to play 6 games against the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders, which should be enough to win the division on its own. Basically, I have to get behind an AFC team and I choose to be unoriginal and go with the Bolts. Don’t expect me to pick them in the playoffs though, because the man standing on the sidelines with the clipboard is still Norv Turner.

2) Denver Broncos (7-9)

They tried their absolute hardest to lose this division last season, and that was when they still had Jay Cutler. Also before Brandon Marshall completely lost his mind. I’m getting angry while I write this. I actually used to respect the Broncos but I don’t know — I can’t do this anymore, forget it.

3) Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)

The winners of the Matt Cassel Sweepstakes! They’ll have a fun year convincing themselves that they didn’t overpay for someone else’s back-up. I have faith that Cassel will be good for a few extra wins. Plus, Cassel-to-Bowe seems like an exciting possibility. Hey Kansas City, let’s keep Larry Johnson out of bars this season!

4) Oakland Raiders (3-13)

Games won in the last six seasons: 24. Games lost in the last six seasons: 72. Last season with more than 5 wins: 2002. Is Al Davis still alive? Probably. All bad signs for the 2009 Raiders. What’s even worse is that Al Davis is convincing himself on his deathbed, that JaMarcus Russell is the future of Oakland Raiders football.  What’s ironic is that the definition of a black hole (the Raiders’ name for their rabid section of armor-clad, face-painted fans), is a dying star that has collapsed on itself. Much like the Oakland Raiders.











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