World Champions!

6 02 2012

It’s hard to imagine a more anticlimactic game-winning touchdown run with :57 seconds remaining in the Super Bowl than the one Ahmad Bradshaw scored last night. On a second-and-goal from the six yard line, Bradshaw took the hand-off from Eli Manning and ran directly up the middle of a gaping hole in the Patriots defensive line. Shocked by this clear path to the end zone, it took a few seconds before Bradshaw suddenly remembered what he had to do, but it was a few seconds too late. Just inside the one yard line, Bradshaw squatted as if he was shrinking away from an imaginary tackler, hearing Eli yelling for him not to score. The momentum of his run was too much to fight though, and it carried him over the goal line, backwards, almost as if he were moving in slow motion.

And just like that, the New York Giants led the New England Patriots 21-17 with :57 seconds left in Super Bowl XLVI and we didn’t know whether to celebrate or be disappointed. So, by default, we celebrated — even if the reaction was a little delayed. After all, wouldn’t it be better to force the immortal Tom Brady to go the length of the field and score a touchdown to win, rather than relying on Tynes to boot a high-pressure kick and then give Brady the ball back needing only a field goal to win?

The decision will be debated, for sure, but not as much as it would have been if the outcome of the game was any different than what it ultimately was. As it were, Brady’s last second Hail Mary pass ended up hitting the turf  just out of the reach of Rob Gronkowski’s fingers and scooted out the back of the end zone, and then — cue the confetti, for the second time in four years.

It’s still far too early for me to accurately put this Super Bowl run and eventual title in the proper perspective, but I can say this much: this one seemed more deserved, like we really earned it, at least more so than 2007. Although 2007 was special for me in its own way (it was the first Giants title that I was old enough to appreciate, we ruined the Pats’ perfect season, etc.), my immediate feeling is that I will come to cherish this victory even more when I look back on it years from now.

To compare the two would be foolish at this moment, before the initial wave of euphoria from last night’s victory has even worn off. If I could put it simply though, I would say that when it comes down to it the 2007 title felt like it was a series of serendipitous events that carried us like a team of destiny, whereas this run felt like we scratched, clawed and fought to the death every step of the way, catching fire at the right time and straight-up beating the best teams in football in the rawest, most pure way possible.

And maybe there are other factors in there somewhere too. Maybe it’s because of the fact that this run seemingly came out of nowhere. Maybe it’s because of the fact that every single win in this six-game stretch dating back to Christmas Eve against the Jets has felt like one big sigh of relief after another. Or maybe it’s because of the fact that I already have such fond memories surrounding each and every playoff game that made up this run. From being there in MetLife Stadium to witness the first home playoff win in the new building against Atlanta, to the improbable win over the 15-1 Packers, to watching us capture the NFC title on a beach in St. Maarten, and finally watching Big Blue wrap up another Super Bowl title in the last minute with my Dad, the only other Giants fan I know more diehard than I am, every step of the way was memorable.

A few years from now, I’ll probably be able to better assess the two Super Bowl runs and how they compare to one another, but right now, I’ll just stick to enjoying this one.

So soak it all in, Giants fans. After the season we just went through, that might very well have taken a few years off of my life, we sure as hell deserve it.


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Super Bowl XLVI: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots Position-By-Position Breakdown

30 01 2012

There are about 155 hours left until the kickoff of Super Bowl XLVI, or three viewings of The Tree of Life if you want a rough comparison. The Patriots have already landed in Indianapolis and the Giants are due to arrive today, so in celebration of the official beginning of Super Bowl Week, I’m going to do a position-by-position breakdown of the big game. But before you read all the way through to the bottom expecting to find my prediction, I want to warn you that you’re not going to find it. If you think I’m going to be pressured into giving a prediction that I’ll regret all week, then you must be outside of your mind. It’s not happening.

Quarterback: Eli Manning vs. Tom Brady

If this breakdown was comparing how Eli Manning and Tom Brady played last week, then the outcome might be a little different. If it was comparing which quarterback was hottest at this very moment, then the outcome would definitely be different. But if we’re just comparing Eli Manning and Tom Brady straight-up, with no stipulations, then it’s hard not to tip the scales in Brady’s favor. I know Eli has won his last two games against Tom and I know he’s probably playing the best football of his life right now, but the fact is that Tom Brady is still Tom Brady, official UGG’s spokesman, until further notice. The fact that this is even as close as it is speaks volumes to how well Eli Manning is playing right now. I’ll leave it at that.

Slight Edge: Pats

Running Backs: Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw vs. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead

If this category was “Which running back tandem has the best names” then I’d have to give it to the Patriots. BenJarvus Green-Ellis almost has half as many names as he had rushing touchdowns during the regular season and Danny Woodhead sounds like a comic book character. But if we’re comparing them based on which tandem is more likely to swing the momentum of the game, it’s going to have to be Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw is the heart of the Giants offense, even if his numbers may not always show it. He didn’t play the last time the Giants and Pats met back in Week 9 and the Giants still came out on top, so having him around this time should be a big plus for Big Blue. And if Brandon Jacobs can break a few big runs, the Patriots defense will have major problems.

Edge: Giants

Wide Receivers: Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham vs. Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Chad Ochocinco

Right now, the Giants have the best wide receiving corps in the NFL and it isn’t even close. Each and every one of those three have had a significant impact on the Giants’ postseason run and they are a major reason why the Giants are going to be playing for the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night. Nicks had enormous games against Atlanta and Green Bay, and when he was locked down against San Francisco, it was Victor Cruz that stepped up with 10 catches for 142 yards. And what about Mario Manningham? Well, he has only quietly scored 3 touchdowns this postseason, one in each game so far. His 3rd-and-15 catch against San Fran to put the Giants up 17-14 was one of the biggest plays of the season.

As for the Patriots receivers, we all know that Welker has had a monster season. Although the New England receivers are the exact polar opposite of the Giants’ squad in that they are more prone to controlling the middle of the field and not known for their big-play tendencies the way Nicks, Cruz and Manningham are, they are still dangerous and equally hard to cover in the 10-20 yard range. Plus, Ochocinco just bought a pair of Beats by Dre headphones for every single player on the Patriots which is probably the most important thing he’s contributed all year.

Edge: Giants

Offensive Line: Chris Snee, David Diehl, Kareem McKenzie, David Baas vs. Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Nate Solder

These two units are going to play an extremely important role in Sunday’s game. If the Patriots offensive line can protect Brady and make sure he isn’t running scared and throwing darts into the ground like Alex Smith during the 4th quarter last week, then the Pats should be in good shape. We all know what can happen if the Giants get pressure on Brady. We saw it in Super Bowl XLII and we saw it in Week 9. This is no secret. For the Giants, their line was simply abused by the 49ers defensive front last week. Manning was hit so many times he could have legally changed his name to Tina Turner. Luckily for the Giants’ line, the Patriots pass rush isn’t nearly as ferocious as San Francisco’s. For now though, and since the play of the Patriots’ line is much more closely connected to their success than the Giants’ line is, I’m going to give the edge to New England.

Edge: Pats

Tight Ends: Jake Ballard, Travis Beckum vs. Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez

Much like the wide receiver match-up, this one isn’t even close. Only instead of being in the Giants’ favor, this one clearly goes to New England. Jake Ballard can hold his own with just about anyone in the league and has had a great season filling the shoes of the departed Kevin Boss, but he’s leagues away from Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Gronkowski shattered tight end records left and right this season and even on a bad ankle, he’s the player that the Giants defense needs to make its number one priority going into Sunday night. His high ankle sprain is going to be the big story leading up to the game and it’s not likely that Gronk will be 100%, but Rob Gronkowski at 75% is still more dangerous than 90% of the tight ends in the league playing at full health. Plus, Aaron Hernandez plays like a wide receiver and the Pats have even started using him as a running back too because apparently their offense is run by a 12-year-old playing Madden.

Edge: Pats

Defensive Line: Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul, Chris Canty, Linval Joseph vs. Shaun Ellis, Vince Wilfork, Mark Anderson

This unit is the Giants’ bread and butter. They will set the tone of this game and it’s up to the Patriots offensive line to keep them at bay, which will be easier said than done considering no offensive line has been able to successfully do that in over a month and a half. The Giants’ defensive line is a very close-knit group and they have big game experience too. Tuck and Umenyiora both played huge roles in the Super Bowl XLII victory and Tuck sacked Brady twice in that game. In fact, if it wasn’t for Eli Manning’s late game heroics, an argument could have been made to give Tuck the MVP of that game. Simply put, this game will be determined by how much pressure the Giants’ front four can put on Brady.

As for the Patriots, Wilfork had an enormous game against Baltimore last week, and it will be up to the Giants’ offensive line to keep him at bay on Sunday. If it was legal for defensive tackles to eat their way through the offensive line though, Wilfork would be absolutely unstoppable.

Edge: Giants

Linebackers: Michael Boley, Mathias Kiwanuka, Jacquian Williams, Chase Blackburn vs. Brandon Spikes, Rob Ninkovich, Tracy White

This is a tough category to call because the Giants linebackers have been really hit-or-miss all season. Only in the last five weeks have they begun to really gel and play some quality football. Jacquian Williams is finally making plays, Boley and Kiwanuka are finally both 100% healthy and Chase Blackburn went from eating Cheetos on his couch two months ago to playing a major role in another Giants Super Bowl run. It’s weird how football works. The linebackers are going to really be tested on Sunday with Gronk and Hernandez roaming the middle of the field. If they can cover and not let either tight end go all Vernon Davis on them, then they will severely limit the Patriots’ offensive options.

Slight Edge: Giants

Secondary: Kenny Phillips, Corey Webster, Aaron Ross, Deon Grant, Antrel Rolle vs. Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, Pat Chung, James Ihedigbo, Sterling Moore

I have to give the edge to the Giants here on principle. The Patriots owned the league’s worst passing defense all season, and even though they’ve looked a little better during the playoffs, you need to remember who they went up against the last two weeks: Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco. Two quarterbacks who aren’t exactly known for lighting it up. The most dangerous receiver they’ve had to cover was probably Demaryius Thomas. Let’s get real here for a second. They haven’t had to face a receiving corps like the one the Giants have since the last time they played the Giants. Plus, if they throw Julian Edelman out there on Cruz or Manningham it’s going to be a blood bath. The one thing the Patriots’ secondary has in its favor is that it’s opportunistic. They get a lot of takeaways, so as long as Eli can play mistake-free football and be careful with his throws like he was last week in San Francisco, then the Giants can avoid playing to the Patriots’ strengths.

Edge: Giants

Special Teams: Lawrence Tynes, Steve Weatherford, Will Blackmon, Devin Thomas vs. Stephen Gostkowski, Zoltan Mesko, Julian Edelman, Wes Welker

The Giants special teams play is probably what won the game for them against the 49ers. Weatherford punted the hell out of the ball all night, Thomas’s two fumble recoveries were responsible for 10 points and he might have singlehandedly put the Giants in the Super Bowl and of course Lawrence Tynes was the one who won it with his kick. But the truth is that Big Blue’s special teams have been shaky all season. Another game like last week’s is probably asking too much, but all they really need to do is play smart, mistake-free football. On the Pats’ side, Gostkowski is a model of efficiency and Edelman and Welker are always dangerous in the return game. We’ll call this one even.

Edge: Even

Head Coach: Coughlin vs. Belichick

For the second time in four years, Tom Coughlin has coached himself off of the hot seat and into the Super Bowl. He’s done a fantastic job of getting the team motivated and prepared down the stretch this season and especially in the playoffs and he’s converted guys like Antrel Rolle and Michael Boley and made them believers. In fact, he might be doing the best coaching job of his career right now. But so is Belichick. He’s taken a team with the 31st ranked defense in the league and brought them within one win of a Super Bowl title, which is amazing given the fact that he has based his entire career up until now on his defensive superiority. Basically this comes down to the fact that Belichick is Belichick — the slight edge here goes to the Pats, even though, much like the Manning-Brady comparison, this is much closer than it would have been a few years ago.

Slight Edge: Pats

 

Prediction: No way.


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Just Enjoy the Ride, Right?

26 01 2012

I’ve spent quite a bit of time in the last few days trying to figure out why this Giants Super Bowl run feels so different from the 2007 Super Bowl run. Am I not recalling the last one correctly? Is my memory skewed and tainted, now that I know the outcome was a Super Bowl title? It was only four years ago, so it’s all still pretty fresh, or as fresh as four-year-old memories can be. So why does this run feel so different, and why does it seem so much more stressful when we weren’t even supposed to be here in the first place?

I’ve tried to go back and put myself in the state of mind I was in during the 2008 playoff run, but it’s a little difficult now in hindsight, especially with the knowledge that we did eventually end up winning the Super Bowl. From what I can piece together though, that run seems to have been, in hindsight at least, a lot less taxing and less stressful than this one does, even though both teams were virtually in the same place before the playoffs began — fringe playoff teams that nobody ever expected to compete for a title.

So what’s the deal?

Was it because I didn’t expect the 2008 team to make a run, so the pressure was off and I simply enjoyed each game for what it was? No, it couldn’t have been that because as recent as a month ago I didn’t expect the 2011 Giants to make a run either. In fact, I had already begun mourning the lost season before JPP dragged us out of the grave against Dallas on December 11th.

What about the playoff games themselves? Nope, it couldn’t be that either, because with the exception of Sunday’s game against San Francisco, we’ve won by double digit margins in every game we’ve won on our five-game winning streak. If you compare the margins of victory in the 2008 playoff run leading up to the Super Bowl (10, 4, 3) with this year’s (22, 17, 3) it’s not even close.

There it is though. There’s a key phrase in that last paragraph that might explain everything: five-game winning streak. This season, we have essentially played two more playoff games than we were supposed to play, and we’ve played three more playoff games than the Patriots. Beginning with our Christmas Eve game against the Jets, every single game we’ve played since Week 15 has essentially been a playoff game. We’ve obviously heard this repeated quite a few times throughout this playoff run so far from Tom Coughlin and a handful of others, but I hadn’t yet looked at it from this perspective yet — as the reason why this playoff run feels longer, harder and more draining.

Every single one of our last five games have been must-win, do-or-die situations, and each victory has been like reaching a new plateau and then looking up and seeing how much mountain there is still left to climb. To compound all of that, there is the issue of perspective that goes along with it as well. For example, since the memories of the 2008 playoff run are still fresh and the vivid memory of winning a Super Bowl is still lingering, it’s only natural that we want more of it. That’s another major factor in what has set this run apart from the last one. The feeling of knowing what it’s like to win it all and not being happy with anything less than that. If you could isolate that feeling and recognize it for what it is, things start making more sense.

There has been a tremendous amount of tension released after each victory on this run. Beating the Jets allowed us to breathe a little easier and push past all of the distracting “New York vs. New York/Rex Ryan” hoopla and focus on making the playoffs. Then, beating the Cowboys allowed us to exhale because we clinched the division and got into the playoffs. The Falcons game allowed us to push past the “first home playoff game at MetLife Stadium” milestone and the “haven’t won a home playoff game in 11 years” stigma that was hanging over our heads. Beating a 15-1 Green Bay team almost felt like winning the Super Bowl, but it wasn’t and we had to recognize that we still had to get past San Francisco. When we finally did though, it allowed for the biggest wave of relief yet when Tynes’ kick sailed through the uprights.

But now, there is one final hurdle, and the fact that we’ve been here once before and jumped this hurdle only makes it that much more important. If we lose to New England this time, will the Pats’ revenge taint our fond memories of the SB XLII victory?

There are two weeks for Giants fans to sit back and enjoy the ride and soak in the joy of being in the Super Bowl, but when Sunday, February 5th rolls around, you better believe that anxiety will return. Because even though we weren’t even supposed to be here a month ago, now we are and there is a lot for us to prove. If it seems like there’s more to prove this year than there was in 2008, it’s probably because there is.


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This All Seems a Little Familiar

24 01 2012

As the minutes leading up to Sunday night’s NFC Championship tilt agonizingly dripped away, I ran through the usual and familiar gamut of pregame anxiety symptoms: the nervous tapping of my right foot, the fingers fidgeting away, the stomach churning in anticipation. What wasn’t usual and familiar, however, was where I would be watching the game. I wouldn’t be on my living room couch at home, leaning forward anxiously like I was getting ready to bolt out of the house any second. I wouldn’t be watching it at friend’s house or a bar either, surrounded by fellow Giants fans masking their anxiety with copious amounts of alcohol.

Nope, none of those places.

Instead, I was sitting on a beach towel with my feet in the sand. In front of me was the Caribbean sea, and directly behind me was the runway of the only international airport on the island of St. Maarten. Off to the left, where I was faced, was a large movie-theater sized projection screen on top of a beachside bar showing the Giants-49ers game. Thankfully, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman were drowned out by the Sunset Bar DJ flowing effortlessly from Drake to Usher to Rick Ross, and occasionally he was drowned out by an incoming Airbus A320 that skimmed the tops of our heads.

How did I end up here watching my team try to fight its way into the Super Bowl? Well, it’s funny you should ask. When our trip was booked, back in the beginning of December, the New York Giants were 6-6 and not exactly looking like they were primed to make a Super Bowl run. When we originally planned the dates, January 15-22 seemed sensible — that is until I realized that our flight home at 5:00 p.m. on the 22nd would put me in the air during the NFC Championship game. Although this shouldn’t have been a concern at that time, my first thought was, “What if the Giants are playing? What would happen? How could I live with myself?”

While the thought seemed crazy at the time, changes were made, dates were altered and I decided that if the Giants, by some crazy, improbable turn of events, actually did make the NFC Championship game, watching it in St. Maarten would be better than not watching it at all.

As fate would have it, those same 6-6 Giants did make the NFC Championship game. They made it by dismantling the Jets, then the Cowboys, then the Falcons and astonishingly, the Packers too. And so on Sunday night, I watched the New York Giants win the NFC title in a decidedly unusual place.

What I had hoped for all week was a game similar to the 2001 NFC title game, a simple, easy thrashing that I could enjoy peacefully while buying many rounds of drinks and ideally not fighting back the urge to throw up during an overtime coin toss. As you all know by now, that is not what I got. Instead, what I got was a four-hour heavyweight bout between two fighters who refused to go down. What I got was possibly the most nerve-wracking second half I can ever remember watching.

The game, in and of itself, was almost like a microcosm of the entire season. It was an emotional roller coaster, filled with ups and downs and just about every frustrating aspect of a football game you can imagine: dumb, drive-extending penalties by the defense, Alex Smith eluding sacks and scrambling for big first downs, Eli getting repeatedly battered and abused by the Niner defense, long touchdown passes to tight ends, stalled drives and long-winded Ed Hochuli explanations. But somehow, despite all of this, the Giants were the ones putting on their championship t-shirts and hats after the game.

Despite the fact that Eli might have spent more time on the ground Sunday night than he did standing up, he brushed off every single hit like it never happened and continue to make the plays that needed to be made. The best thing about his performance on Sunday night was the fact that none of it surprised me. In 2007, I would have been in awe of that 17-yard touchdown pass to Mario Manningham on 3rd and 15 that put the Giants up 17-14. On Sunday night, I expected it, and number 10 did not disappoint.

With the game tied at 17 and heading into overtime, and with the eerie feeling of deja vu that came with yet another overtime NFC Championship game (only this time with shiny new rules), the sky above us on the beach opened up and it began to rain. At the time, I thought this to be a bad omen. We headed under an awning to watch overtime on a much smaller TV screen, with around 10-15 other people that remained at the bar. By the time Jacquian Williams forced the fumble on Kyle Williams and Devin Thomas put his superhero cape on for the second time that night, I was pacing nervously back and forth chain-smoking and hoping that Trey Junkin was far, far away from Candlestick Park that night.

Although I had hoped that Bradshaw would gallop into the endzone and end it swiftly and painlessly, he got us close enough and when Lawrence Tynes trotted out onto the field to kick the Giants into the Super Bowl for the second time in four years, I thought that I could literally taste my heart in the back of my throat. The camera panned to Bradshaw on the sidelines with his helmet off and his eyes closed. His face titled towards the sky, it appeared as if he was repeatedly whispering “Please make this kick” although I couldn’t quite make it out. But it didn’t matter because that’s what I was whispering, and that’s exactly what Lawrence Tynes did.

In the end, it was the image of Steve Weatherford trying desperately to pull his helmet off and begin celebrating that stuck with me on the drive home. It was the image of Victor Cruz, with wide-eyed wonder, looking like one of those kids in the commercials who’s parents just told him they were going to Disney World.

And now, we have two weeks to prepare for a game we had no business being in as little as a month ago. We have two weeks to prepare for a rematch of what might have been the most exciting Super Bowl ever played. Only this time, we are the team that won the regular season meeting, and it’s the Patriots that will be playing with a chip on their shoulders, looking for redemption, looking for revenge.

Although two weeks is a long time to wait, it will give Giants fans just enough time to savor the joy of being back in the Super Bowl when just about everyone thought it would be impossible. After all, wasn’t it supposed to be the other New York team playing in February? Wasn’t GM Jerry Reese openly criticized back in August for failing to make any substantial offseason moves and saying that he was satisfied with the team he had?

Well, I guess that team that Reese was satisfied with back in August was pretty damn good after all. Now, he is one win away from getting to have the ultimate last laugh while the “Dream Team” and Gang Green watch in envy.

Obviously, everyone is going to compare this Giants team with the 2007-08 team, but we’ll have to wait two weeks to see just how accurate that comparison will be.


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NFL Week 13: Things I Know*

5 12 2011

*I don’t actually know anything. This is all purely conjecture, and probably inaccurate conjecture at that.

It’s almost playoff time! Teams are getting ready to make that final push for those precious few playoff spots, Christmas trees are going up in living rooms all over the country and the Giants defensive coordinator is openly questioning the effort of his players!

In other words, it’s December. As you may or may not know, December is also my favorite time for pretending that I know A LOT about the NFL. It’s not too hard to imagine, after all I do watch close to 200 hours of NFL-related programming from the months of August to February. So yeah, I should know A LOT about the NFL. After watching a full day of football yesterday, here is what I learned:

*I’m only going to say a few things about yesterday’s Giants loss because, honestly, there isn’t too much to say. It was an interesting game, it was a competitive game, but at the end of the day it turned out exactly how I thought it would turn out: with a loss. This is the NFL, not the BCS. There are no “good losses” or “bad losses.” There are just losses. Yesterday’s game was a loss, no matter how you choose to look at it. And no matter how you choose to look at it, it all boils down to the fact that, for the second time in the last three weeks, we lost a game that was very winnable in the fourth quarter because our defense couldn’t come up with a stop when it needed to.

Once again, Eli Manning walked off the field late in the fourth quarter with the game tied and needed the defense to come up with just one big play, just as he did in the game against Philly. And once again, the defense folded. Fifty-eight seconds later it was Crosby’s kick sailing through the uprights, and the Packers are 12-0. No style points, no moral victories, no “nice try.” Just our fourth-straight loss and an ENORMOUS game against the Cowboys next Sunday night with first place and our season on the line. Oh and by the way, our defense has given up 87 points in the last two games. I know we played Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, who could probably put up 40 points on the ’85 Bears, but I’m still not happy with our defensive play.

*The 2011 Better Late Than Never award goes to Titans running back Chris Johnson. CJ spent the first ten weeks of the NFL season Dexter-ing my fantasy football team, and I somehow was able to win despite his disappearing act. But in the last few weeks, with the fantasy playoffs drawing closer, he finally woke up and rejuvenated not only my fantasy team, but the Tennessee Titans playoff hopes as well. At 7-5, the Titans are still very much alive in the AFC South, despite the fact that I’m still not sure if Matt Hasselbeck has broken the 200-yard mark all season.

*At one point this season, the Buffalo Bills were 4-1. Remember that?

*My sincerest condolences go out to anyone who watched all 60 minutes of yesterday’s Bears-Chiefs game. I hope you make a full recovery.

*If the Dolphins’ season started on November 6th, they’d be 4-1 while outscoring their opponents 140-53 in the process. Let’s just say that nobody wants to be playing the Miami Dolphins right now with their playoff lives on the line. Luckily, we got them out of the way at the very beginning of their mini-hot streak, or else I could absolutely see Matt Moore throwing for 425 yards against us.

*I’m not even going to attempt to understand how Tim Tebow does what he does. The topic has been beaten into the ground already, and I think at this point we can all pretty much agree that he has something special. It’s something that regular football metrics can’t really quantify, but it’s there and it’s pretty obvious at this point. A 6-1 record, five comeback wins, and a nation of believers. If you don’t get it by now, you probably never will. Next week Denver gets a depleted Bears team at home, without Cutler or Forte? Can we be looking at an 8-5 Broncos team going into what will now be a HIGHLY anticipated Dec. 18 game against the Patriots? Possibly. Tebow vs. Brady? I can’t wait.

*Dan Orlovsky started 10 games for the 2008 Detroit Lions. This means that he has a chance to be the starting quarterback for the only two teams in NFL history to go 0-16. That is, if the Colts can finish off their impressive feat. I’m not sure that is a distinction that Dan Orlovsky wants to be recognized for.

*The Houston Texans are 9-3 despite the fact that they have lost their top two quarterbacks to season-ending injuries and were without Andre Johnson for six weeks (and maybe more after he re-injured his hamstring yesterday). The Titans are creeping up on them in the AFC South, but luckily they get a Bengals team that’s lost three out of its last four games next week, followed by the Panthers and Colts.

*The Cowboys are not as good as everyone seems to think they are. I’ve been saying this all season, and I’m going to stick with it after their 19-13 overtime loss to the Cardinals yesterday. There is not a single aspect of their overall game that impresses me. Of course, we still have to beat them twice in the next four games. But….

*….If you don’t think the Giants are going to run the table in the next four games, then face the 17-0 Packers in the NFC Championship game and beat them, you’re clearly out of your mind.


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Ready or Not, It’s Time for the Playoffs (And Why I Think The Packers Will Win It All)

5 01 2010
Green Bay Packers v Arizona Cardinals

Aside from the NCAA Tournament in March, the NFL Playoffs are probably my favorite postseason event in sports, even when the Giants aren’t playing. Do you want to know why I love the NFL Playoffs? If you don’t, just skip the next few sentences, because I’m going to tell you anyway. I love the NFL Playoffs because you get one chance, and that’s it. There are no best-of-5 series, there are no brutally long best-of-7 series that drag out for a week and a half. There is one game and one game only. If you’re unprepared, it will show. Typically in best-of-7 series, the team that is supposed to win, will win. In the NFL Playoffs, anything can happen. Often enough, anything does happen. That’s why I love the NFL Playoffs, because you can have a team like the 2008 Arizona Cardinals get hammered in Week 16 against the Patriots and lose by 40 points but then suddenly get hot at the right time and be in the Super Bowl a month later. I love the NFL Playoffs because a 10-6 wild-card team that everybody wrote off two months before can beat the number 1 and 2 seeds in the NFC in back-to-back weeks on the road and then stun an undefeated team to win the Super Bowl. Do I need to explain myself anymore?

If you’re getting deja vu from looking at the games slated for this weekend’s Wild Card playoff round, that’s because three out of the four match-ups are repeats from last week, and two of them are even being played on the same field. If I was the Elias Sports Bureau I would probably be able to tell you if that has ever happened before, but I don’t have those kinds of statistics in front of me, so for now I’m going to have to go out on a limb and guess that it is a pretty rare occurrence. Both the Packers and Eagles will return to the scene of the crime from Week 17 for a playoff rematch. The Packers easily handed the Cardinals a 33-7 loss in Glendale on Sunday, and will hope for a repeat performance this weekend. Meanwhile, the Eagles are hoping to actually show up in Arlington this Saturday night, because from what I saw they sure as hell didn’t show up on Sunday, losing 24-0 to the Cowboys and also losing out on a chance for the #2 seed in the NFC. In doing so, they dropped from the #3 seed all the way down to the #6 seed, ensuring that they will not have a home game in the playoffs. Going from possibly having a first-round bye and a home game in the Divisional round to being the #6 seed in the span of a few hours was probably just as disheartening for Eagles fans as remembering that they’ve lost 4 NFC title games in the last 7 years.

As for the Cardinals, I think we’ve all learned our lesson about writing off teams that look like a bunch of ghosts with uniforms on in Week 17. Last year’s Cardinals team taught us that lesson, and maybe they’re trying to reteach it again this year. All I know is that Sunday’s Packers-Cardinals game will certainly be a lot closer than 33-7.

So two exact, carbon-copy rematches from Week 17 in the first-round of the playoffs for the first time ever (yes, I’ve actually done the research now, so I can say that with confidence), and that’s just the NFC. What about the AFC? Well, there’s the remarkable story of the New York Jets. Even Rex Ryan wrote this team off a few weeks ago, but now they’re suddenly the toast of the town. How did this happen? I have no clue. I can take a shot in the dark though and attribute their sudden and inexplicable success to a few things:

1) Their cream puff of a schedule. The Jets won 9 games this year against Houston, New England, Tennessee, Oakland, Carolina, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis*, Cincinnati*. Three of those wins came against playoff teams, including Indy and Cincy in the last two weeks, but I’ll explain the asterisks in my next point.

2) They beat Indy and Cincy teams that were pretty much only on the field to collect a paycheck the last two weeks. Peyton Manning was out of the game by halftime in Week 16 allowing the Jets opportunistic defense to take advantage of a terrified Curtis Painter to the point where I was about to call DYFS on Jim Caldwell. And then on Sunday night, they trampled a Cincinnati team that clearly didn’t have any incentive to put on a show. I mean, Carson Palmer was 1/11 for 0 yards before being replaced by J.T. O’Sulli-beard. If those stats don’t scream, “The Football Felt Like a Frozen Brick, Somebody Give Me Coffee and Get Me Out of This Game Before Kimo Von Oelfhoffen Comes Out of Nowhere and Dives At My Knees”, then I don’t know what does.

3) Every single thing that the Jets needed to happen in the last two weeks in order to make the playoffs, happened.

But hey, I’m not bitter! So let’s move on to the next AFC Wild Card match-up featuring the New England Patriots and the Baltimore Ravens. Ironically, the Patriots, one of the only teams that I have been able to consistently figure out for the past 4 or 5 years is turning out to be the only team that I really don’t understand this season. Are they good? Are they a shell of their former selves? I can’t even tell anymore. However, if Wes Welker’s injury is as bad as they say it is (and they say it’s pretty bad, trust me), then I fear for New England. And if Tom Brady really has been playing with broken ribs for the last month like Bill Simmons says he has, then I fear for New England. I can see this game going either way though, it’s like the Tila Tequila of playoff games.

So, with all of that said, here are my Wild Card playoff predictions:

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Bengals 27, Jets 17

I didn’t watch all of Sunday night’s game, I’ll be honest. Most of what I got out of the game, I got from glancing over my shoulder at the TV while I sat at a blackjack table at Showboat. What I saw was this: J.T. O’Sullivan’s beard, Mark Sanchez not throwing many passes, really cold fans, Brad Smith, J.T. O’Sullivan’s beard, Mark Sanchez looking confused. Somehow it was 37-0. It’s going to be a whole different sequel in Cincinnati on Saturday with the Bengals hosting a playoff game in front of their home crowd for the first time since the 2006 playoffs when Kimo Von Oelhoffen simultaneously ended Carson Palmer’s season and the Bengals’ season on the second play from scrimmage.

Saturday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Eagles 31, Cowboys 23

You can’t say the same about the Eagles Week 17 performance as you could about the Bengals. The Eagles had a lot to play for, probably just as much as anyone else playing last week. They just didn’t show up, simply enough. Now, they have to avoid the dubious distinction of losing to the same team three times in one season, and twice in consecutive weeks. JerryWorld is going to be packed to the gills for it’s first playoff game and it’s going to be up to Donovan McNabb and DeSean Jackson to quiet the crowd and get the Eagles on the board early. If the Cowboys build an early lead like they did last week, it’s going to be Blitz City for the Dallas D and the Eagles injury-depleted offensive line.

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EST

Patriots 20, Ravens 17

This game is going to be about how well the Patriots defense can calm down the Ravens potent two-headed beast at running back of Ray Rice and Willis McGahee and it’s also about how many times Randy Moss can get open against the Baltimore secondary. If Randy Moss has a big day, then so too will New England. I think that the Patriots should be able to get it done against the Ravens on Sunday, but with Welker gone and Brady not 100%, they’re going to have trouble after that, especially against San Diego and Indy, should it come to that.

Sunday, 4:00 p.m. EST

Packers 36, Cardinals 33

I like Aaron Rodgers and I like this Packers team just about as much as any other team in this year’s postseason. I have a good feeling about Green Bay and I think they’re one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and I love Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, and this Packers team is my playoff team for 2009. They seem to me like the most complete team in the NFC, and yes, even more so than the Saints. Their defense, the new 3-4 system implemented by Dom Capers this season, as proven to be effect as it’s one of the best in the league. Their balanced offense is a perfect fit for the gunslinging Aaron Rodgers, and I finally think that it’s time for a coming of age for A-Rod. Beating Brett Favre in the playoffs for a ticket to the NFC Championship is probably the sweetest justice he can have. As you can probably tell, I like the 2009 Green Bay Packers. I like them to beat Arizona on Sunday and then I like them to beat Brett Favre and the Vikings next week and then it’s on to DALLAS, OR PHILADELPHIA, OR NEW ORLEANS! THE PACKERS ARE GOING TO TAKE THEM ALL DOWN!

Since I’m already all worked up I just wanted to add one more paragraph about something that happened yesterday in the Giants organization that excited me more than anything else having to do with the Giants since Week 15: Defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan was fired. As I watched the latest 44-7 embarrassment this past Sunday in Minnesota, I hoped that Sheridan would be out no later than Monday, and I (along with most of Giants Nation, I would imagine) got my wish yesterday afternoon. So thank you, John Mara, for standing up for your fans and for being an owner with guts, and for doing what the Wilpons will probably never do: FIRE PEOPLE THAT CAN’T DO THEIR JOB (*cough* Omar Minaya *cough*).


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Making Sense of Week 10

16 11 2009

With the Giants not playing yesterday, I had a better chance to really absorb the other games going on around the league and take a closer look into some of the more interesting stories that unfolded in Week 10 of this NFL season. There were more than a few interesting subplots to take away from yesterday’s action. From near-upsets to head-scratching coaching decisions, Week 10 was like one long of episode of Curb Your Enthusiasm. Moments of laughter, moments of confusion and moments that make you wonder, “Did he really just do that?” But above all those things, yesterday just proved to me, once again, that I really do not have a clue how to pick NFL games.

  • Since I’m likely to finish below .500 in my picks for the second straight week, I’d like to at least take a few sentences to acknowledge that I am capable of getting something right. In my Week 10 picks column, I wrote that Vince Young had revitalized the Titans in a way that they desperately needed. He provides an extra intangible spark that Kerry Collins didn’t possess and with him on the field it seems that the team as a whole is playing with a lot more confidence now. That has never been more apparent than yesterday’s 41-17 thrashing of the Buffalo Bills. Of course I’m aware that they beat the Bills and not the Colts, but Tennessee has now won three in a row with Young under center.  I’m aware that anyone with even a portion of a normally-functioning brain could tell that replacing Collins as the starter would spark the Titans, but I still feel proud to be able to salvage some sliver of wisdom from my defeated and drained psyche.
  • I’m aware that even the best teams in the league have their off days, but the Saints really escaped with one yesterday. And by escaped, I mean that they did everything but have Michael Scofield tattoo prison blueprints to his body and get arrested so he could help them escape. The Saints were sloppy yesterday, but the fact that they somehow managed to stick with their gameplan and survive even on their worst of days to stay undefeated, makes them that much better. And if that doesn’t make a lot of sense to you now, just wait until the playoffs and you’ll see what I mean. A 9-0 team that loses a sloppy, meaningless Week 10 game to the Rams loses a little bit of their swagger, even if its not immediately noticeable. On the other hand, a 9-0 team that barely escapes the upset and ekes out a win over the Rams in a meaningless Week 10 game gains something from that win. Believe it or not.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals. I’ve been fawning over them all season like I’m a teenage girl from 1994 and the Bengals are Zach Morris from Saved by the Bell. Of course I haven’t been able to pay as much attention to them as I’d like because I took up a seat on the Broncos bandwagon after Week 1 and I have been riding shotgun there ever since. But yesterday, as much as I talked up their defense all week and even though I took them in my picks column, there was something in the back of my mind that told me that they couldn’t beat the Steelers on the road in the most important game of the season thus far in the AFC North. And then they did. 18-12. They scored the only touchdown of the entire game on Bernard Scott’s 96-yard kickoff return in the first quarter and 4 Shayne Graham field goals later, the Bengals are 7-2 and all alone in first place in the AFC North. With a 5-0 record within the division, they are in the driver’s seat right now, having swept both the Ravens and the defending Super Bowl champs and one more meeting with the hapless Browns is the only thing that stand between Cincy and a 6-0 record in the AFC North and possibly a first-round bye in the playoffs. Needless to say, I vacated the Broncos bandwagon after yesterday’s disaster in Washington so quickly that I think I left a vapor trail and now I’m on the waiting list for the Cincinnati bandwagon. I know I should have come to them sooner.
  • Speaking of the Broncos, they are slumping, and they are slumping big time. And speaking of slumping, there’s another team that continued its struggles yesterday that starts with “Atlanta” and ends with “Falcons”. While the Broncos were busy dropping their third straight game to a Redskins team that can’t get out of its own way, the Falcons went ahead and lost for the third time in four games. Atlanta, now 5-4 after a 4-1 start to the season, apparently has a strong case of the homesick blues as all four of their losses have come away from the Georgia Dome. The road woes will be in play once again next week as the Falcons travel to Giants Stadium to take on a Giants team that is also struggling. In addition, Atlanta might be without star running back Michael Turner, who rolled his ankle yesterday in the second quarter, after piling up 111 yards on only 9 carries. While this could be disastrous for my already sinking fantasy team, it’s a good thing for Giants fans, which I am. The Broncos aren’t without injury issues of their own, as Kyle Orton went down with an ankle injury yesterday as well. Chris Simms started the second half for Denver, which might seem like a bad thing, until you realize that the difference between Kyle Orton and Chris Simms is like the difference between Sweet & Low and Equal. They’re both bad for you, but one is a little less worse. Fortunately for both teams, the Falcons still have two games to play against the Bucs and the Broncos play in the same division as the Raiders and Chiefs. Hope remains.
  • The Dallas Cowboys are not really making it hard for me to question their legitimacy. They put on a strong performance one week and then have a game like they did against the Kansas City Chiefs the week after. Last week, they seemed to be in top form; and then yesterday they get shutout by Green Bay for 58 minutes. I’m not saying the Packers are bad, because they are far from it, but this is a Packers defense that got torched for 38 points by Tampa Bay last week and are apparently having identity issues themselves. Romo looked his usual, scared self, and most importantly, Dallas just could not get the run game going with Marion Barber being held to only 26 yards on 5 carries. Romo was forced to throw the ball 39 times, and everybody knows that when Tony Romo is throwing the ball 39 times, things are not going well. Had I stayed home to watch football yesterday, I would have been stuck watching the Cowboys-Packers with nothing else to toggle back-and-forth between. However, I decided to go to the local sports pub for the 4:00 games and possibly saved myself from sticking bamboo up my fingernails to ease the torture of a 3-0 game in the 4th quarter combined with the drone of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman.
  • What will possibly end up being the most-talked-about story of yesterday and the most heavily questioned coaching decision in recent memory happened during last night’s much anticipated, annual Patriots-Colts battle. With the Pats up 34-28 and just over 2 minutes to play, Bill Belichick opted to go for it on a 4th and 2 with the ball on the Pats’ own 28-yard line. As Tom Brady came back on the field and the team lined up to go for it, all I remember is that I kept repeating, “No they’re not, they can’t be” as I watched in horror. Sure enough, they did not convert and at the two-minute warning, with three full timeouts left, Peyton Manning had but a mere 28 yards to take his team for the game-winning touchdown. Instead of punting it away and leaving Manning with maybe 60 or 70 yards to march in 2 minutes, Belichick made Peyton’s job at least 50% easier for him. In case Bill wasn’t aware of this, Peyton Manning is perhaps one of the few players in the NFL that you don’t want to ever make things easier for. It’s already easy for him. Is it highly possibly that Manning would take the Colts down the field for the score anyway, even if New England punted? Yes, very possible. BUT WHY MAKE HIS JOB EASIER? It took Indy four plays until Manning found Reggie Wayne in the endzone. 35-34, game over, Colts stay undefeated. Not only did the Patriots blow a 34-21 lead with 4 minutes to play and possibly a chance to recapture the throne of power in the AFC, but their supposedly genius coach suffered one of the most epic brain farts of all time. I swear that I’ve made decisions with a BAC of 2.25 that were better than that decision to go for it on fourth down.
  • And before I sign off for the rest of the week and mentally prepare myself for the Giants-Falcons game on Sunday, it would not be right if I didn’t get in at least one dig at the New York Jets. Not only has Gang Green dropped 5 of their last 6 games after their rather arrogant 3-0 start, but they’ve lost to the Dolphins twice, the Bills and now the Jacksonville Jaguars, with 3 of those losses coming on their home turf. Forget for the second that somehow the Jaguars are 5-4, losing to Jacksonville, Miami and Buffalo at home is not going to make a lot of people believers. Keep up the good work, and you might be able to salvage a 6-10 record out of this season.

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NFL Week 5 Picks: Still Unharmed by Braylon Edwards’ Posse

9 10 2009

It’s very possible that I jinxed myself going into last week’s picks. Then again, this is the NFL, one league where anything is possible, including the possibility that I may be wrong from time to time. I was wrong exactly 50% of the time last week. A lot of things happened this week in the wild and crazy world of the National Football League and I will let you know that if my fantasy team loses again this week I’m either retiring from the game altogether, or applying for a job in the Mets front office.

Here’s the Week 5 picks, home teams in ALL CAPS

Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS

I’m not a Packers fan, nor will I ever be, but I can only imagine that watching Brett Favre completely destroy their team on Monday night was the football equivalent of watching your father divorce your mother and then start hooking up with your ex-girlfriend that you absolutely hate. Seeing him celebrate after throwing that first touchdown pass was the dagger through the heart…kind of like if you accidentally walked in on your father getting it on with your ex-girlfriend that you absolutely hate. I want to let the entire state of Wisconsin know that I am sorry and I feel for you.

Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY

The Cowboys are having some difficulty scoring points lately, which wouldn’t really be too big of a problem if they had a good defense, but they don’t. Luckily, it doesn’t take a lot of points to beat Kansas City. It actually doesn’t take a lot of anything to beat them.

CAROLINA (-3.5) over Washington

Listen to this fact nugget: So far this season the Washington Redskins have yet to face a team with a win. How is that possible in Week 5, you might ask. Well, the only teams the Redskins have played so far that are not still winless are the Giants and the Lions. Washington played the Giants in Week 1 and the Lions in Week 3. Both teams picked up their first win of the season against Washington. That streak will continue this week as the Redskins face the winless Panthers, and if the Cowboys beat the Chiefs on Sunday, that streak will extend all the way into Week 6, which should be some kind of NFL record. Needless to say, the Redskins have an awfully easy first half of the season, and this is probably why they’re 2-2. After their bye week, it gets daunting with the Falcons, Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles and Saints all in a row. Say goodnight to your season, Redskins fans!

PHILADELPHIA (-15) over Tampa Bay

This is officially the biggest line of the week, edging out the Giants-Raiders line by a half point. With that said, I’m pretty sure the Eagles have played the Bucs already this season. Whether or not Philly is trying to pull a fast one on the league, let’s just say that McNabb is back from his McRib injury and the Eagles will slap the Bucs all over the field.

NY GIANTS (-14.5) over Oakland

I asked my Magic 8 Ball if Eli was going to play on Sunday, and although it answered “All Signs Point to Yes”, I can’t really believe it until I see him out there on the field. However, if he’s to miss any games this year, I’d rather it be against the Raiders. I mean, even David Carr can beat Oakland. Just look at his stat line for that game! WOW! I really, really hate taking the Giants when they’re giving this many points, but consider this a testament to just how awful the Raiders are. I’m actually surprised that Vegas hasn’t rolled out a prop bet to gamble on the amount of passing yards that JaMarcus Russell has each week yet. I’m going to set the over/under at 80 yards this week. Anyone?

Cleveland (+6) over BUFFALO

How far away are we from our first T.O. meltdown? Two weeks? Two days? I’m completely in the dark here. How long before he’s camped out in the bushes by Trent Edwards’ house with a paintball gun and a Scream mask?

BALTIMORE (-8.5) over Cincinnati

This game will be the turning point in deciding how I bet on the Ravens and Bengals for the rest of the year. Is 8.5 points giving them more credit than they deserve against a possibly frisky Bengals team? Or is the uncomfortably close game against Cleveland last week a sign that Cincy isn’t quite ready yet? I don’t know about this one. Let’s just give Baltimore the benefit of the doubt.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) over DETROIT

Steelers Nation needs to hold its horses right now. Last week’s win over San Diego wasn’t exactly the resurrection of a sleeping giant. The Steelers showed all of the problems towards the tail end of that game that they’ve been exhibiting all season: they go limp in the fourth quarter. I don’t care if they still ended up winning by 10 and covering the spread. The Bolts scored 21 points in the 4th. That’s not good football. In the past three games, the Steelers have allowed 45 points in the fourth quarter alone. They lost two of them. They could very well have lost last week too, if the Chargers had even some semblance of a defense. And what is with Rashard Mendenhall? Willie Parker couldn’t rush for 100 yards if the other team took their defense off the field and he comes in and runs for 165 yards? Actually, I don’t even want to talk about it.

Atlanta (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

This should be a very interesting game, to say the least. Apparently the Niners have impressed enough people so far this season to earn being 2.5 point favorites over the Falcons. Either that or the Falcons have just looked plain underwhelming. I think it’s a little bit of both, to be honest. Also, the 49ers are officially ushering in the start of the Michael Crabtree Era in San Fran and Michael Turner is disappearing faster than Jamal Anderson right now. This is not good. Is it safe to say that if the 49ers win this, they pretty much have the NFC West locked up? Too early?

New England (-3) over DENVER

Somehow, the Denver Broncos are 4-0. Their defense looked stellar last week against Dallas….but was it their defense that was so good, or the Cowboys offense that’s so bad? Yet another prime example of the “It’s Still Too Early to Tell Which One” Game. Either way, the Patriots are slowly rejuvenating. It’s like watching your best friend get back into the dating world after a divorce. It’s going to take some time to acclimate and get up to speed again, but soon he’ll be back at full strength. So I guess Brady’s injury would be the divorce….? Yeah, let’s go with that.

Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA

I REFUSE TO GIVE UP ON THIS TEXANS SEASON! It’s still too early. You can’t make me take the Cardinals giving 5.5 points. Andre Johnson vs. Larry Fitzgerald. My fantasy team might never recover if Johnson has a bad game on Sunday. In no way does my fantasy team affect how I make my picks. Not at all….

Jacksonville (PK) over SEATTLE

This game is so unappealing that Vegas couldn’t even decide on a line. They didn’t want to spend more than 30 seconds thinking about either team. You think the NFL might intentionally black out this game so nobody has to see it? Except for the poor Seahawks fans that had to pay for tickets.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE

I might say that the Colts are the best team in the AFC right now, and I may be right. Still, I haven’t seen enough of them yet to really put any conviction behind that statement. So I’ll be watching on Sunday night. By the way, is it just me, or have the Colts played on either Sunday night or Monday night every week so far? It feels like it. Also, I’m not picking the Colts because I signed Pierre Garcon and the Indy D off of waivers this week. I’m serious, it doesn’t affect my decision at all.

MIAMI (+2) over NY Jets

Welcome to the Chad Henne Era! Let’s do this! The Wildcat will account for about 78% of the Dolphins offense on Monday night. The Jets will stop it every time. I’m still picking against Sanchez on the road in his first night game though, even with the addition of Braylon “Dropsy” Edwards.

Last Week: 7-7

Season Total: 40-22


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MEGA, SUPERSIZED, COLOSSAL 2009 NFL Season Preview, Parts III and IV (Double Issue!)

8 09 2009

Buckle your seat belts and get ready for me to bang out my AFC preview in one post and no less than 3,000 words. Clear your schedule before reading this.

AFC East

1) New England Patriots (13-3)

This was probably one of the easiest choices I’ve ever had to make in my writing career. Which team to pick to win the AFC East. I don’t know if I can make a legitimate case for anybody in this division other than the Patriots when Tom Brady is healthy. And before you accuse me of melting and fawning in the presence of Tom Brady like Turtle in Entourage, just know that I don’t have a man-crush on him, I just WATCH FOOTBALL. I was there for the 16-0 season, I lived it. (I also lived Super Bowl XLII, but that’s okay (That was my one obligatory SBXLII reference for this column, sorry for the double parentheses.)) The Patriots are far and away the best team in this division. Even Brian Hoyer managed to shred the Giants second and third string defenses last night. The Chiefs will probably sign him to a $600 million dollar contract next offseason.

2) Buffalo Bills (10-6)

I still believe that this team is better than most people take them to be. If you can remember this far back, they did start last season with a 5-1 record, but 3 of those wins were against Seattle, Oakland and St. Louis. They then proceeded to lose 8 of their last 10 games and finish a stealthy 0-6 against division opponents. So the 5-1 start may have been the product of smoke and mirrors and slight of hand, but the addition of Terrell Owens isn’t going to hurt. Hate T.O. all you want, but he never fails to produce, and this season in Buffalo, he’ll do something else very important: he’ll draw double coverage from most teams leaving the dangerous Josh Reed and Lee Evans more room to make big plays. If Marshawn Lynch stays healthy and doesn’t disappear off the face of the earth like he did last season and if Trent Edwards is at least semi-competent, the Bills can finish second. That’s about it though.

3) New York Jets (8-8)

I’m not sold on Mark Sanchez and I probably never will be sold on Mark Sanchez unless he is not Mark Sanchez anymore or if the Jets win their first 9 or 10 games this season. Otherwise, I’ll pass. It probably has a lot to do with his GQ spread before even playing a single down in the NFL and the fact that he went pro after one full season at USC and magically became a Top-10 pick. Something about that just rubs me the wrong way. Say what you will, but I’m a skeptic. I’m a skeptic because I don’t believe in Mark Sanchez and I’m a skeptic because Mark Sanchez has nobody to throw to. As a Giants fan, I know I shouldn’t be throwing stones and all, but Jerricho Cotchery is Jerricho Cotchery. They are what we thought they were.

4) Miami Dolphins (8-8)

Let’s assume that just about every team in the league is now aware of the Wildcat offense by now. It’s a safe assumption. Let’s assume that the Dolphins can no longer pull the wool over your eyes and run this crazy offensive scheme where Ronnie Brown is taking direct snaps and Chad Pennington is catching passes, because we know it’s coming now. Let’s assume that the Dolphins will no longer be capable of scoring 48 points against the Patriots this season. Now let’s also assume that Chad Pennington starts playing like Chad Pennington and not like a real quarterback, which is what he looked like for most of last season. Then what do we have left? We have the Miami Dolphins we all know and love; overwhelmingly mediocre.

AFC North

1) Baltimore Ravens (13-3)

The Ravens were one of the teams that impressed me the most in last year’s playoffs. Ultimately, the Ravens demise in the AFC Championship against Pittsburgh was rookie quarterback Joe Flacco, who was so impressive during the regular season. But it was what was expected of a young quarterback, playing in probably the biggest game of his life to that point. In his second season now, I expect Flacco to make even bigger strides in improving his game management and limiting his mistakes. He has a solid arm and great efficiency and we already know that Baltimore can run the football. Willis McGahee, LeRon McClain and Ray Rice will split carries again this year and look for Rice to be more productive as a pass-catching back as well. Do I even have to even mention the defense? We all know that the Ravens D is the cream of the crop, second only to the next team….Pittsburgh. So why do I have B-More winning the division? Because I like to be different, and because they impressed me in the playoffs last seaso—- I don’t want to repeat myself, you get it.

2) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

I know, they’re the defending champions, and blahblahblah. The post-Super Bowl slump is a real thing though, it does exist. Just ask the Giants. Sure, they finished 12-4 last year, but did you see that Philadelphia game?  Exactly. Plus, two Super Bowl rings or not, I still feel the same way about Ben Roethlisberger as I did when he was a rookie: meh. Basically what I’m saying is that their defense should still win them about 5 or 6 games this season and Ben will do just enough to not lose in another 6.

3) Cincinnati Bengals (7-9)

Call me a victim of solid editing by HBO, but the 2009 Cincinnati Bengals are starting to grow on me. I’m a big fan of the Hard Knocks series and this season definitely is not lacking in the entertainment category. Unfortunately, entertainment doesn’t win you football games in the NFL. Just ask Chad Ochocinco. Sure, “Kiss the Baby” might catch on as the next ridiculous catch-phrase in sports, but Esteban needs to catch a few more touchdown passes than he did last year (4) for the Bengals to be relevant. It helps that Carson Palmer is back from last season’s injury and having him under center instead of Ryan Fitzpatrick is definitely good for at least 3 or 4 more wins. When he’s at 100%, there’s not denying that he’s one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, so Cincinnati will improve with him back on the field.

4) Cleveland Browns (4-12)

There are a lot of funny quarterback battles this season. Between Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich in Tampa Bay (Leftwich won and McCown was just traded to Jacksonville), Alex Smith and Shaun Hill in San Francisco and Mark Sanchez and Kellen Clemens in New York, nothing tops the one going on in Cleveland right now. Derek Anderson vs. Brady Quinn. Nothing says “Rebuilding Year” like having Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn fighting over the quarterback position. Plus, Braylon Edwards would probably drop his own child if it was thrown at him.

AFC South

1) Indianapolis Colts (12-4)

Don’t write off the Colts this season, even with Tony Dungy leaving and Peyton Manning another year older, they’re still the same Indianapolis Colts and believe it or not, he’s still the same Peyton Manning. They didn’t impress a lot of people in the playoffs last year, getting ousted by San Diego in the first round, but the Chargers were one of the hottest teams in the league at that point and they have always had Peyton’s number. He has never had much luck against the 3-4 defense. Manning seems to be getting comfortable with the new system installed by new head coach Jim Caldwell and the Colts should enjoy themselves another solid season.

2) Tennessee Titans (10-6)

The Titans were one of the big surprises of 2008 and coasted into the playoffs with the best record in the AFC before being shut down in the Divisional Playoffs by Baltimore. What happened was that the Ravens played a very similar brand of football as Tennessee, stingy defense, solid running game, real smash-mouth football — only they played it better.  The fact of the matter is that Kerry Collins is good for only 1 of those seasons like he had last year (trust me, as a Giants fan, I would know this) and so don’t expect too much from him this year. Expect them to do much of the same as what won them 13 games last year, only this time they won’t be sneaking up on anybody.

3) Houston Texans (9-7)

This team is slowly getting better and better each season, and people are noticing. Not enough people yet, but the word is getting around. What the Texans really need this season is for Matt Schaub to stay healthy for 16 games. Schaub has a hell of an arm and a solid bunch of receivers to throw to. Andre Johnson put up Pro Bowl numbers last season, most of them coming with Sage Rosenfels throwing to him, and Kevin Walter is one of those quiet, under-the-radar guys that put up 10 TD’s last season without anyone really noticing. Add talented TE Owen Daniels to the mix and Steve Slaton, one of last year’s breakout rookies and there is a great, young team to watch in Houston. Oh, and their defense is pretty good too.

4) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

I’ll be honest, I don’t know that much about the 2009 Jacksonville Jaguars. I just know that they were 5-11 last season and that I’ve heard very little about them since training camp started. So I can only assume that they’re pretty much the same guys that were 5-11 last season. Am I right? Correct me if I’m not. Maurice Jones-Drew will put up some great fantasy numbers, but I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in David Garrard. Luckily the Jags have another option now at quarterback just in case things get shaky…they just acquired Luke McCown in a trade from Tampa Bay. At least football fans in North Florida still have the Seminoles to get excited about. Wait, what was that? They lost their season-opener to Miami last night? Sorry I mentioned it then.

AFC West

1) San Diego Chargers (14-2)

Luckily, the last division of this preview is also one of the least exciting divisions in football right now. The Chargers went into the playoffs last season as possibly the hottest team in football, but just couldn’t out-muscle the Steelers. However, don’t forget that they won this division at 8-8. It was equal parts of San Diego winning the division and equal parts of Denver giving the division away to the lowest bidder, and the Chargers are certainly not without flaw. In fact they are far from perfect. They are talented though and have a gunslinger for a quarterback, plus they get to play 6 games against the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders, which should be enough to win the division on its own. Basically, I have to get behind an AFC team and I choose to be unoriginal and go with the Bolts. Don’t expect me to pick them in the playoffs though, because the man standing on the sidelines with the clipboard is still Norv Turner.

2) Denver Broncos (7-9)

They tried their absolute hardest to lose this division last season, and that was when they still had Jay Cutler. Also before Brandon Marshall completely lost his mind. I’m getting angry while I write this. I actually used to respect the Broncos but I don’t know — I can’t do this anymore, forget it.

3) Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)

The winners of the Matt Cassel Sweepstakes! They’ll have a fun year convincing themselves that they didn’t overpay for someone else’s back-up. I have faith that Cassel will be good for a few extra wins. Plus, Cassel-to-Bowe seems like an exciting possibility. Hey Kansas City, let’s keep Larry Johnson out of bars this season!

4) Oakland Raiders (3-13)

Games won in the last six seasons: 24. Games lost in the last six seasons: 72. Last season with more than 5 wins: 2002. Is Al Davis still alive? Probably. All bad signs for the 2009 Raiders. What’s even worse is that Al Davis is convincing himself on his deathbed, that JaMarcus Russell is the future of Oakland Raiders football.  What’s ironic is that the definition of a black hole (the Raiders’ name for their rabid section of armor-clad, face-painted fans), is a dying star that has collapsed on itself. Much like the Oakland Raiders.





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