It’s Championship Week in the college basketball world, and since my Dos and Don’ts of Fantasy Football column from last July was so popular (kind of) I figured I would give you all the benefit of my wisdom once more. To say I’ve never picked a bad bracket in my life sounds like an exaggeration, but it isn’t. I don’t win my pool(s) every year, but I’m always still in it when the Elite Eight rolls around, and that’s all you can really ask for, isn’t it?
Now, be aware that some of these tips may sound a little unorthodox to people who are even a little bit familiar with not doing things backwards. I understand that. I also don’t care.
DON’T watch a lot of college basketball during the regular season. It’s probably a little too late for this piece of advice, but you can give it a try next year if you want. While it sounds extremely counter-intuitive, it’s actually helped me for almost a full decade now.
You might ask, “How am I supposed to successfully pick a college basketball tournament bracket without having watched a substantial amount of the teams in the tournament all year?” Perfectly valid question. I don’t watch more than 4-5 hours of college basketball all season. You see, during the months of November through January I’m pretty much 90% occupied with the NFL season, and the other 10% of hard drive space that’s left is usually devoted to the NBA. That doesn’t leave any room to care about college hoops, unfortunately. Once the Super Bowl is over, I’m left with about three full weeks to absorb whatever college basketball knowledge I can.
Too late? Nope, actually just the opposite. I typically sit and wait, like a jaguar lying in the dense jungle brush stalking a wild boar. On Selection Sunday, the hunt begins. I pour over every one of the 67 teams and every one of the first round matchups like I’m studying for the BAR exam. In college, there are usually two kinds of study techniques: pay attention during every class and take notes, or read the entire book the night before the exam. You can probably figure out which kind I was.
DO put a lot of value in the following things: strength of schedule, non-conference API, head-to-head records, conference records and past tournament experience. Believe it or not, you can find out almost all you need to know about a team from the above five categories. I say “almost” because chaos loves the NCAA tournament, we know that.
Be especially cognizant of the last category: past tournament experience. Experience is highly valuable in the tournament, and for good reason. Why do you think Michigan State makes a run almost every year? Because Tom Izzo is no stranger to the Dance and knows how to prepare his teams. It’s the reason why Butler made a second straight Final Four run last year and it’s the reason why VCU might do the same this year (early pick alert). I know VCU has a younger team compared to last season’s Final Four squad, but never discount the experience of the guy at the helm.
DON’T lean too heavily on the #1 seeds, and certainly don’t put all four of them in the Final Four. Why? I mean, they’re the #1 seeds for a reason, right? Wrong. All four top seeds have only made it to the Final Four once in tournament history. Because it happened in 2008 and it’s still a fairly recent memory, it may seem more likely to happen again, but it’s not. Don’t be tempted.
DO recognize that the system tends towards chaos (at least in the first and second rounds). In the end, everything usually works out the way it’s supposed to. Four out of the last five tournaments have been won by a No. 1 seed and a top-seeded team has won a total of 16 titles since 1985, but at least for the first few rounds, be aware that upsets will occur. Sprinkle a few of them throughout your bracket, but don’t just close your eyes and see where your pen lands, focus on a few key statistics.
For example, the No. 12 seeds are 39-89 against the No. 5 seeds. That may seem pretty lopsided to the casual observer, but then again if you’re reading this you’re probably more than just a casual observer. That winning percentage is 30%, which is pretty good considering the circumstances. That works out to one out of every three, which means that of the four 5-12 matchups that occur in every tournament, it’s almost guaranteed that at least one of them will win, and there might even be two. If you finish your bracket and notice you don’t have any No. 12 seeds advancing to the second round, you should probably go back over them and reconsider.
Also, the 2-10 second round matchup is something else to watch. This is one of the most fascinating stats in the tournament: Historically, the No. 2 seed is 28-21 against the No. 10. That’s almost an even split, so if you find yourself with any 2-10 matchups in the second round of your bracket, watch out. Last year, there was only one 2-10 matchup and the No. 10-seeded Florida State defeated the No. 2-seeded Notre Dame.
DON’T over-think anything. I know that teachers always tell you to go with your first instinct, and no one ever listens to that, but it’s surprising how often it’s true. If you come to a matchup you’re not sure about, don’t start digging out your Magic 8-Ball and firing emails at Joe Lunardi. Go with your gut and stick with it. Of course, I never follow my own advice and change my bracket upwards of eight or nine times before I’m okay with it.
DO think about having your wife/girlfriend/sister who knows nothing about college basketball fill out your bracket for you. They’ll often pick teams based on which mascot they like better or which family members or friends attended the school, and more often than not you’ll find that they’re absolutely destroying you by the Sweet 16. It’s fascinating, but also frustrating. So if you’re going on Year 14 of finishing in dead last in your office pool, you might want to consider this route.
DON’T pick a No. 9 seed to beat a No. 1 seed or a No. 12 seed to beat a No. 1 seed unless you personally have (possibly illegal) insider information that says differently. In the history of the tournament, No. 1 seeds are 59-6 against No. 9 teams in the second round of the tournament, and 18-0 against No. 12 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen. That adds up to an overall record of 77-6 against No. 9s and No. 12s, which isn’t very good. It’s certainly not a number you would feel comfortable leaning on when you’re making your picks, so it’s best to just stay away from that. We love our upsets, so we’ll always consider putting that No. 12 seed or No. 9 seed past the big, bad No. 1, but history tells us that it almost never happens. When in doubt, always side with history.
So those are my dos and don’ts. It’s not a complete list by any means, but it’s all I can think of right now. Besides, I don’t want to give away all of my secrets, right? Anyway, you’re welcome for the advice and like Drake’s album, you can thank me later.
Somewhere in their dark, damp underground lair, the BCS committee is watching this year’s NCAA tournament unfold while they rub their hands together and cackle endlessly.
