The NFL is an enigma. It’s not completely beyond comprehension, but it’s a lot harder to understand than baseball or even the NBA. Parity is one of the reason for this, but most of it stems from the fact that there are hundreds of mitigating factors that are in play every time two teams step on the field to do battle. Home field, momentum, teams with a chip on their shoulder, injuries, mistakes, rookie quarterbacks playing on the road, and coaches that don’t know how to properly manage the clock. These are only a few of the things that go into what ultimately decides every game in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, especially playoff games. The playoffs amplify everything by 100 and put every single flaw that a team may have under a microscope.
I’m not making excuses for myself. I went 0-for-4 in my picks last weekend. If you go back and read those picks after the fact you might even go as far as to assume that I don’t watch any football. Being completely an utterly wrong about each and every one of the Wild Card playoff games is not going to convince anyone that I actually watch 10+ hours of football every Sunday during the regular season. A person that watches 10+ hours of football every Sunday doesn’t go 0-for-4 in the first round of the playoffs.
But…this is the NFL, and in the NFL things like this happen in the first round of the playoffs:
1) A rookie quarterback, who looked like he was having a Chernobyl-like nuclear meltdown a few weeks ago, can win a road playoff game. By the way, this rookie quarterback is Mark Sanchez. Nevermind the fact that he’s now drawing eerie comparisons to Eli Manning’s breakout 2007 season in the New York media, this is the same Mark Sanchez who couldn’t muster more than 7 points at home against an Atlanta Falcons pass defense that was next to last in passing yards per game allowed.
2) The second-ranked overall defense will show up in Arizona and get torched for 51 points. Yes, 51 points. Even more ridiculous: the Cardinals scored 51 points and still needed overtime to beat the Packers.
3) Joe Flacco 33, Tom Brady 14. In Foxborough. To be honest with you, that’s a little misleading though, because Joe Flacco only threw for 36 yards on Sunday. That’s all. The Ravens beat the Pats 33-14, on the road, and their starting quarterback had 36 yards passing. How? Ray Rice, that’s how.
So, knowing that I not only embarrassed myself last week by going 0-for-4, but also lost my Super Bowl pick after the first round, I will put a unique twist on my picks of the Divisional Playoffs. I will pick the opposite of whatever my instinct tells me this week. That means that whatever I say in the next few paragraphs is the complete and total opposite of what my obviously flawed football intuition is telling me. This is a win/win situation, because if I go 0-for-4 again, it would mean my original instincts were correct. Try to stay with me here.
Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
Saints 33, Cardinals 27
There is no way that Kurt Warner has another game in him like the one he played against Green Bay last week. There is also no way that New Orleans is feeling a little out of sync after losing the last three games of the regular season. It doesn’t matter at all that their last convincing win came against the Patriots all the way back on November 30th. We’ve seen this happen year after year, number one seeds that sputter out towards the end of the regular season, but then rebound once the playoffs start. They are not in any danger of a hot team like the Cardinals coming in and stealing the game from them with an early ambush. Nope. Not in the NFL.
Saturday, 8:00 p.m.
Ravens 24, Colts 20
I forgot what the rule was — always bet against Peyton Manning in primetime games, right? I’m pretty sure that was it. Also, does anyone remember what happened to the Colts in the playoffs last year? They lost to the 8-8 Chargers who snuck into the playoffs by stealing the AFC West right out from under a reeling Broncos team (the Broncos are getting awfully good at tanking the second half of the season). So this is actually a no-brainer. The Ravens are coming off of a big win, Jim Caldwell is taking a ton of heat for pulling Manning against the Jets and Lucas Oil Stadium is not a difficult place for a young quarterback like Joe Flacco to win a road playoff game.
Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
Cowboys 41, Vikings 10
This game has stumped NFL analysts and ESPN’s talking heads all week. Nobody really knows how to pick this game. I do though. I know exactly who to pick. The Cowboys look like one of the hottest teams in the league right now and the Vikings don’t. Is it that simple? Apparently. Are you really going to make the mistake of backing Brett Favre in the playoffs at 40 years old? I dare you.
Sunday, 4:00 p.m.
Jets 27, Chargers 24 OT
You have to be a moron not to back Mark Sanchez on the road in the biggest game of his career against a team that’s won 11 games in a row. Seriously. Anyone who watches football, in fact anyone who even knows the definition of the word “football”, knows that the Jets will march in to Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday and their top-ranked defense will stifle the hottest team in football. I swear, sometimes this league is so easy to figure out.
