This is the day I’ve been waiting for since the commissioner handed the Steelers the Lombardi Trophy on February 1st. That’s right kids, it’s the first day of the NFL regular season! Tonight’s game, a match-up between the defending champs, the Steelers, and last year’s regular season champs, the Titans, should be a great game with lots of excitement and very little scoring. Sounds like every party I went to in college!
Here are my Week 1 picks, home teams in all caps.
Titans (+5) over STEELERS
The first game of the NFL season kicks off tonight in Pittsburgh as the Steelers will start their NFL record 6th title defense. They’ll start it against a Titans team that looked like the strongest team in the league for most of last season…until the playoffs started (hey, just like the Giants!). Remember, this is the same Titans team that beat the Steelers in the regular season last year and then stomped on the Terrible Towel on the sidelines. I only remember this because ESPN had a 5-minute feature story on it yesterday. As if LenDale White stepping on a yellow towel was the same as someone stomping on the Shroud of Turin. The Steelers will win this one, but I see a close game, something along the lines of a 17-14 or 21-17 finish.
FALCONS (-4) over Dolphins
Here’s the first chance the Falcons have to show the world that last season was no fluke and that they mean business. NFL analysts, and even analysts of NFL analysts (like myself) seem to think that Atlanta will score a ton of points this season (why else would I be starting Michael Turner and Matt Ryan on my fantasy team), so a solid young defense like Miami’s will be the first real test. For the sake of debate, we’ll say that Turner scores 7 touchdowns and the Falcons win.
RAVENS (-8.5) over Chiefs
*Hint: If you’re in a Survivor pool, here’s your best bet for Week 1. While everyone and their mother is picking New Orleans over Detroit, you sneak in and take Baltimore and hope that Matthew Stafford throws for a million touchdowns. In all seriousness though, Matt Cassel is coming off of a minor preseason injury, the team says he’ll be 100% ready to go by Sunday, but the Ravens are a tough act to open to in your first real outing as a shiny, new starting quarterback.
Eagles (+1) over PANTHERS
I’m having a little trouble understanding how Vegas came up with this line. I don’t know if I would say the Eagles are underdogs, and even if you’re giving a little bit of a cushion to Carolina because they’re at home, why make it a 1-point spread? If you’re not going to stretch it to at least 2 or 3 points, why not just make it a pick ‘em? Either way, the only Panthers I keep seeing in my head now are the Panthers that got run out of their own stadium by Arizona in the playoffs last year and they will have to do a lot to erase that image of a grimacing Jake Delhomme from my mind. The Eagles should win this easily and Michael Vick will have nothing to do with it (because he’s not on the roster).
BENGALS (pick ‘em) over Broncos
Welcome to the Kyle Orton/Josh McDaniels/Brandon Marshall Era, Broncos fans! Can you name another team in the last five years (besides the 2007 Falcons or the Raiders, every year) who has had a worse offseason than the Broncos did this year? Because I can’t. Between Shanahan retiring and then Cutler crying his way out of town and the latest Brandon Marshall Circus, I just can’t believe the Broncos even want to field a team on Sunday. I’m on the 2009 Bengals bandwagon though, alongside Esteban Ochocinco, possibly the most annoying NFL player since Brian Bozworth.
Vikings (-3) over BROWNS
I think that 3 points is a little too modest for this line, after all I can’t even hear myself think anymore with all of the swooning going on over the Vikings and Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson and how they will own the NFC this season. So then only 3 points against Cleveland? What happened? At least Eric Man-genious has finally decided on a quarterback. I expect that decision to last all of 4 games.
TEXANS (-4) over Jets
The Texans are my pet sleeper team for 2009, and another team that I’ll be constantly monitoring all season because of my fantasy team. Which makes me directly affected by the success of the Houston Texans and now I’m involved. Too late to back out now. Don’t think the Texans don’t have anything to prove though, they’ve spent the last three seasons listening to people hype them up as the next breakout sleeper team and haven’t really lived up to the hype, so it’s now or never.
COLTS (-7) over Jaguars
If commercials were movies, Peyton Manning would probably be the highest paid actor in Hollywood right now. Which is fitting because brother Eli is now the highest paid player in the NFL. BOOM! You see what I did there? Good, neither did I. Basically, I’m tired of Peyton Manning and I’m tired of the Jaguars too.
SAINTS (-11.5) over Lions
*Hint: I was just kidding about my last hint. I mean, you can take the Ravens in your Survivor pool if you really want to, but you should also consider the Saints too. And for that matter, whatever team is playing the Lions for the rest of the season. The Lions will probably win a few games this season, but this one definitely will not be one of them.
Cowboys (-3) over BUCS
The Cowboys don’t open up their new stadium until next week against the Giants, so that means punters are safe for another week. What isn’t safe is the ball whenever Byron Leftwich is throwing it.
49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS
I don’t even have a joke for this game. Nothing about Kurt Warner’s age or about Mike Singletary dropping his pants or even a good old fashioned Alex Smith joke. Nothing. I wish the best of luck to everyone involved in this game. Actually these two teams have had some pretty exciting games in the last few seasons so this one might be a lot closer than everyone thinks. Maybe even close enough for the Niners to cover the spread.
Redskins (+6) over GIANTS
The Redskins scored a total of 14 points in two games against the Giants last year. It’s a whole new season though and that means more time for Campbell to adapt to Jim Zorn’s system. The only thing that makes me nervous about this game (besides the Giants receivers) is the Giants have had the Redskins number in the last few years and a 6-point spread seems like quite a bit for an NFC battle on opening day. If anything, I see Washington covering this spread.
Rams (+7) over SEAHAWKS
While we’re on the topic of new beginnings, both of these teams could use one. It was a rough season last year for both of these teams (and pretty much all of the NFC West, besides Arizona) but now Seattle should be back to full strength with Hasselbeck back from injury and the addition of Houshmandzadeh will help. The Rams also have a lot to prove though and so does new coach Steve Spagnuolo, maybe a little bit more to prove than the Seahawks.
PACKERS (-3) over Bears
Classic NFC North slugfest getting forced down our throats in Week 1, before we’re even ready to fully appreciate it. At least wait for October guys, what’s the rush? I always love Packers-Bears games because they’re usually so evenly matched and anything can happen. I expect the same from this week, but the Pack is back for the most part and we’ll all see if it’s for real after Sunday night. Will this be the year that Aaron Rodgers takes the next step?
PATRIOTS (-10) over Bills
Chargers (-6.5) over RAIDERS
